By shutting the pipeline, Ukraine itself will lose €1 billion a year in gas transit fees, but the Ukrainians are determined to stop Russia using energy to fund its war machine.
Ukraine has been accused of “sabotage” for cutting off Russian gas being piped to Europe.
The move by Ukraine had been long expected. But Slovakia’s populist prime minister, Robert Fico, has reacted angrily and is now threatening to retaliate.
“We will negotiate [with our government coalition partners] what measures are we taking to adequately respond to President Zelenskyy’s sabotage…we are ready to negotiate and agree in a coalition to stop electricity supplies [to Ukraine] and significantly reduce subsidies for citizens of Ukraine who are located on the territory of the Slovak Republic.”
The EU has cut its addiction to Russian gas from more than 40 percent before the war in Ukraine to around 8 percent in 2023.
The five-year Russian deal to transit gas to the EU through Ukraine expired on January 1, giving Ukraine the opportunity to turn off the tap.
So how significant is that for Europe?
The pipeline runs from Russia right through Ukraine and into the European Union.
Until the deal expired, Slovakia had been earning €500 million a year piping the gas on to other European countries and Fico is now demanding Ukraine pay damages.
The EU says it has made sure there is enough gas from elsewhere so that Slovakia, Austria and Hungary will not face any shortages.
An analysis by the European Commission energy department last month concluded that there are “four major diversification routes [that] could be used to bring the volumes needed to replace Russian gas into the region”.
However Moldova – wedged between the European Union and Ukraine – is in a more perilous position.
“Moldova’s [breakaway] Transnistria region is fully reliant on Russian gas transported via Ukraine,” the European Commission warned.
According to local reports, without Russian gas supplies, industry in Transnistria has ground to a halt.
The rest of Moldova could import gas from the European Union to cover a shortfall, but at a significantly higher price, for one of the poorest countries in Europe.
Moldova’s President, Maia Sandu, blamed Russia, not Ukraine, saying “the Kremlin seeks to destabilise Moldova and derail our European path“.
Moldova is due to hold parliamentary elections in the first half of 2025 in what is expected to be yet another battle between pro-EU and pro-Russian influence.
Meanwhile in Ukraine, Russia is continuing to advance on the battlefield.
By shutting the pipeline, Ukraine itself will lose €1 billion a year in gas transit fees, but the Ukrainians are determined to stop Russia using energy to fund its war machine.