After months of cold sweats, nail-biting, and conjecture, Election Day is finally here.
Millions of voters across the country will head to polling places and determine everything from who will hold the presidency to control of Congress to the outcomes of local ballot initiatives. They’ll join more than 75 million people who have already voted early either in person or by mail as they weigh the presidential candidacies of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, along with other third-party options.
Ultimately, the presidential race will be decided by seven key swing states where the margins between Democrats and Republicans are exceedingly close. The states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — include some that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, but that also voted for Trump in 2016. And as recently as this past weekend, polls were so tight in many of them that they remain a toss-up going into Election Day.
Here’s everything you need to know about these pivotal states as well as when to expect results and race decisions to start coming in.
What time do polls close?
Poll closures vary by state — and in certain places, even by county — so be sure to check where you live for specifics. You can do so using this tool from Democracy Works, a nonpartisan nonprofit focused on voting participation.
Broadly, though, cutoffs start at 6 pm ET in states such as Indiana and Kentucky, with many others, including Illinois, Missouri, and Tennessee, closing at 8 pm ET. Alaska and Hawaii finish out the night, wrapping up voting at midnight and 1 am ET.
In swing states, poll closures are also staggered: Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania are the first to close at 7 pm, 7:30 pm, and 8 pm ET respectively. Some Michigan counties will close at 8 pm, while others will close at 9 pm ET. Wisconsin and Arizona both close at 9 pm ET, and Nevada is the last of the seven, closing at 10 pm ET.
When will results start coming in?
States and counties usually start disclosing results once the polls are shuttered in their jurisdictions. Many will post vote counts online as they are being processed, and news outlets and television networks may update their trackers based on these figures. These results are likely to change over time, however.
In some places, smaller and more rural counties may be able to count their ballots more quickly than larger cities, for example. Because of this, smaller towns might report their results faster, creating the impression that one candidate is ahead. This happened in 2020, when certain vote counts suggested that Trump was initially ahead in battleground states, creating a “red mirage.”
Since it takes some states longer to count mail-in votes, that dynamic can also contribute to Republicans banking an early lead since they’re less likely to use absentee ballots.
In both instances, early leads might not match the final result, with margins potentially changing significantly as more votes are tallied. In 2020, this happened in states like Pennsylvania: As more mail-in ballots were counted, as well as votes from larger cities, Biden picked up support, fueling what political observers referred to as a “blue shift.”
It’s not clear if that same dynamic will play out this cycle, but it is a helpful reminder that things could shift dramatically over the course of hours and days.
How many electoral votes does Trump or Harris need to win, again?
There are 538 Electoral College votes up for grabs, and a candidate needs to secure a majority — or 270 electoral votes — to win the presidency.
The majority of these votes are concentrated in safe red or blue states, meaning Trump and Harris are both guaranteed a sizable degree of support. The backing of some swing states, however, will be necessary for each to reach the 270-vote threshold, making them incredibly important.
So, what do I need to know about these battleground states?
The presidential race in these seven states is so close that they have the potential to flip for either Harris or Trump and deliver a sizable number of electoral votes along with it. That’s why both campaigns have been focusing their ground game and advertising here in recent weeks.
- Arizona
- Why it’s a battleground: Arizona was a longstanding Republican stronghold until Democrats flipped it during a Senate race in 2018 and subsequent presidential race in 2020. Democrats have steadily made gains here, though Republicans still have plenty of support, so much so that it’s been a wellspring of election denialism since 2020. A ballot initiative enshrining abortion rights in the state Constitution could be very motivating for voters this cycle and give Democrats a boost due to their support for it.
- Electoral votes: 11
- How voting works: Arizona can quickly report results for ballots submitted prior to Election Day. A high proportion of mail-in ballots, however, have historically been submitted on Election Day itself, and those aren’t counted until polls close, meaning there could be delays in reporting the final outcome, particularly in close races.
- When to expect results: In 2020, the Associated Press (AP) called the race on the day after the election, while other organizations, such as the New York Times, didn’t call the race until nine days after Election Day. In 2024, it could once again be several days until an official call is made.
- Pennsylvania
- Why it’s a battleground: Pennsylvania had voted Democrat for years, but was one of three states in the party’s “blue wall” that went to Trump in 2016. Biden won back the state in 2020, though Republicans have continued to maintain a strong presence, keeping control of one of two chambers in the state legislature. Given its sizable number of electoral votes, the state is a major target for both parties, and could well determine who wins the election overall. Because of how competitive the race is, the state has also been a focal point for GOP misinformation about voter fraud, which remains very rare.
- Electoral votes: 19
- How voting works: Pennsylvania isn’t allowed to process or count mail-in ballots until Election Day, which could contribute to a lag in reporting results.
- When to expect results: In 2020, the AP reported Biden as the winner four days after Election Day. The timing could be similar this election, depending on how many voters opt for mail-in ballots.
- Michigan
- Why it’s a battleground: Michigan was another “blue wall” state that Trump won in 2016 and Biden took back in 2020. It has strong Democratic roots, and the party currently holds the governor’s mansion, two Senate seats, and both chambers of the legislature. But one major question in the state is whether opposition to Harris’s position on Gaza will lead to the state’s roughly 200,000 Arab American voters sitting out the election, voting for a third party or turning to Trump in protest. Given how close the race is, Harris needs high turnout from this group — and many others who have historically backed Democrats.
- How voting works: Changes in election laws made in 2023 are giving officials more time to process mail-in ballots before Election Day. This could help speed up the counting significantly.
- Electoral votes: 15
- When to expect results: In 2020, results were called by the AP one day after Election Day, and officials anticipate that the same could be the case this time around.
- Wisconsin
- Why it’s a battleground: Wisconsin is the third “blue wall” state that Trump won in 2016 and Biden retook in 2020. Its status as a battleground is evident: It has a Democratic governor, one Democratic senator, one Republican senator, and two Republican-led chambers in the legislature.
- How voting works: Mail-in ballots in several large counties are stored in “central locations” and aren’t counted until Election Day, which can lead to some delays.
- Electoral votes: 10
- When to expect results: In 2020, Wisconsin was called by the AP the day after the election and that could happen again.
- Georgia
- Why it’s a battleground: Georgia only recently flipped to Democrats during the 2020 presidential election and then narrowly reelected a Democrat to the Senate in 2022. The state has an enduring Republican lean — evidenced by its Republican governor and two Republican-led chambers in the legislature — but has continued to shift left as it has diversified. Previously, Georgia was a major target of Trump’s attacks in 2020, when he called on officials in the state to overturn its results.
- How voting works: Georgia has approved rules changes that enable the processing of mail-in ballots earlier. These changes should expedite the process compared to 2020.
- Electoral votes: 16
- When to expect results: In 2020, an extremely tight margin resulted in election results being called by the AP a full 16 days after the race. The turnaround could potentially be faster this year depending on the margin in the race.
- Nevada
- Why it’s a battleground: Nevada has voted Democratic pretty consistently, and is known for its strong base of left-leaning union support. It has started to move right in recent elections, however, and elected a Republican governor in 2022. This cycle, the economy — and concerns about the state hospitality industry’s recovery post-pandemic — are key issues that may fuel discontent toward Democrats.
- How voting works: Nevada has expansive mail-in voting, and allows ballots received up to four days after Election Day to be counted. As a result, there could be some delays in when we know the results.
- Electoral votes: 6
- When to expect results: In 2020, election results were called by the AP four days after the election, and it’s possible that could happen again.
- North Carolina
- Why it’s a battleground: North Carolina has been reliably Republican in presidential and Senate races in recent years, though it has shifted left over time. Questions have been raised for years about if and when the state could flip blue again for a national election. This year, a scandal over incendiary statements made by Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson could drag down the Republican ticket as he makes a run for governor.
- How voting works: Processing of mail-in ballots can begin before Election Day, while the counting can’t start until then. Mail ballots must also be received by Election Day this year, a change from 2020.
- Electoral votes: 16
- When to expect results: In 2020, the race was called by the AP 10 days after Election Day, and it’s possible it could be faster this year because of the change to mail-in ballot rules.
How will I know the race is actually called?
Vox will monitor a variety of sources before we publish election results, including the AP and the National Election Pool, a poll conducted by Edison Research and funded by several major news organizations.
States and counties are in charge of running elections, reporting results and certifying those outcomes. There’s a gap, however, between when states report the results of the election and when they declare a winner because of how long the certification process takes.
The AP is one of the entities that fills in the gap in the meantime by analyzing the unofficial results that states and counties are posting. The AP has said it makes a race call when it’s clear there is no way an opponent can make up the gap in votes.
Vox’s Ellen Ioanes has a more detailed explainer on how publications like the Associated Press make these calls.
How long is all this going to take?
It’s likely that tallying the votes could take several days, as it did in 2020. That year, in particular, it took more time to determine the winner of the election because more people used mail-in ballots due to the pandemic.
The last presidential election also saw some of the highest voter turnout in years, and extremely close margins in key swing states. Both those dynamics meant that ballot counting took longer, and that more time was needed to determine whether a candidate had secured a high enough lead to win.
In 2020, it took four days before Biden was declared the winner of the Electoral College by publications including the AP. That year, states like Georgia also saw legal challenges to their outcomes from the Trump campaign, which falsely alleged widespread fraud. States could see similar lawsuits this cycle, and those could fuel uncertainty about the legitimacy of the result, though they haven’t previously delayed calls by entities like the AP. (AP’s notable later call in Georgia in 2020 came only after the state conducted a hand audit that confirmed the outcome.)
This year, don’t be alarmed if results aren’t announced immediately once again and it takes a few days to arrive at an outcome.