Oh, and all of the Western assets in Ukraine? They too would now belong to Russia. There is little reason to believe that Putin would respect the property of Western companies, many of whom exited Russia and have thrown their support behind Ukraine.
Just look at the asset seizure threats the Kremlin is making against Western companies still operating in Russia if the West seizes Russia’s frozen Central Bank assets.
Putin would have access to the assets of Ukraine’s domestic agricultural and steel giants’ – Ukraine is the 20th largest steel producer in the world. Along with the Western companies’ assets, his loyal servants would have their pick of the spoils of war. There is a line of brand-new oligarchs in Russia waiting to be paid back for their loyalty in propping up the Kremlin’s war machine, as Putin has initiated a new strategy of “de-privatisation”, seizing assets across all important sectors of the economy.
“The project is intended to redistribute wealth to a new generation of less powerful individuals – and shore up the president’s own position after the shock of the (Yevgeniy) Prigozhin mutiny and the failure to prevail in the country’s war on Ukraine,” in the words of Chatham House consulting fellow Nikolai Petrov.
In short: if anyone has any illusions they could keep on trucking in Putin’s Ukraine by making concessions to the Kremlin, good luck – his guys are just waiting to divvy up Ukrainian and Western assets.
Ports, check. Grain, check. The military-industrial complex and the demilitarisation of Ukraine, check. Physical assets, check. On to Ukraine’s vast and rich natural resources, which would now also belong to Russia and will be of global strategic importance for decades to come.
Ukraine has vast deposits of critical minerals that are needed for everything from high-tech consumer goods like cell phones and hard drives, and necessary components in green technologies like wind turbines and other renewable energy applications. Indeed, the country has 117 out of 120 of the world’s most commercially used industrial minerals and more than half of the raw materials identified by the EU as critical.
For instance, Ukraine possesses an estimated 500,000 tonnes of lithium reserves, according to Ukrainian researchers – the largest in Europe – which is a critical component of electric vehicles. The start of lithium mining was interrupted due to the war. Russia would now have a totally untapped resource to enjoy.
The World Bank estimates that demand for critical minerals could increase 500 per cent by 2050 in large part due to the move toward low-carbon economies. To reach its green transition goals, the EU will be a big driver of this demand, and without Ukraine, it would be hard-pressed to source these minerals.