Mediators said they were hopeful about brokering a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war after two days of talks in the Qatari capital, Doha, last week, announcing that a “bridging proposal” had been agreed.
However, previous optimism that a deal was close at hand proved to be misplaced. Joe Biden said in February that he believed a ceasefire agreement was “imminent”, while the beginning of Ramadan in March, and intense diplomatic efforts before Israel’s invasion of Rafah in May, were also touted as “last chances”.
Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, said on Monday during a visit to Israel that the latest talks represent “probably the best, maybe the last opportunity” to secure a truce and hostage release deal.
Negotiations are expected to resume in Cairo on Wednesday or Thursday. Hamas is not directly participating; the group is being briefed on developments by mediators Qatar and Egypt.
Why the flurry of diplomacy now?
Blinken has made nine trips to the Middle East since the war broke out, and has come away empty handed almost every time. Negotiations aimed at brokering a truce in the 10-month-old conflict are now considered to be even more urgent after last month’s back-to-back assassinations of a top Hezbollah commander and the Hamas political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, during a visit to Iran.
It is hoped a ceasefire would reduce tensions in the Middle East and dissuade Iran and Hezbollah from retaliatory action that could cause the war in Gaza to slide into a region-wide conflict. Washington is also keen to broker a deal before its focus inevitably turns towards November’s US elections.
Last month Hamas and Israel agreed in principle to implement a three-phase framework publicly proposed by Biden in May.
Hamas has since said the latest version of the proposal diverges significantly from the initial plan because new Israeli demands have been added, including a permanent Israeli military deployment along the Gaza-Egypt border and the Netzarim corridor, the new Israeli-controlled barrier cutting off Gaza City from the south of the strip.
What is on the table and why are there conflicting messages about the likelihood of a deal?
The plan would involve an initial six-week ceasefire, during which a limited number of Israeli hostages would be freed in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli jails, and an increase in the amount of humanitarian aid entering Gaza.
Unlike the week-long truce that collapsed at the end of November, this ceasefire would be indefinitely extendable while negotiators thrash out details of the next stage, so an impasse would not necessarily trigger a return to hostilities.
In its first official statement on the new round of talks, Hamas said on Sunday night that the bridging proposal under discussion is too close to the Israeli line, negating further agreement on a deal.
What are the sticking points?
There are many, but the most important is that Hamas would consider a ceasefire to be a prelude to ending the war, and Israel has refused to rule out a return to fighting.
Since the beginning of the conflict, the identities and numbers of hostages and prisoners to be exchanged have been in contention. Israel does not want to release senior political leaders such as Marwan Barghouti, or people convicted of violent crimes.
Hamas has claimed at times it does not know the whereabouts or condition of many of the hostages: the November ceasefire broke down after Hamas could not or would not produce any more female captives to swap.
Another major issue is how Israeli troops withdraw, and from where. Israel’s apparent insistence on maintaining a military presence along the Gaza-Egypt border is a red line for both Hamas and Egypt.
Who is negotiating for the parties?
Israel’s delegation usually includes David Barnea, the Mossad chief; Ronen Bar, the head of the Shin Bet, or internal security services; and the reservist Maj Gen Nitzan Alon, the military’s representative for hostage affairs.
Ophir Falk, an aide to Netanyahu, has also attended some of the talks as the prime minister’s “eyes and ears”. In previous rounds, members of the negotiating team have reportedly refused to include Falk in meetings. Netanyahu has been accused by critics at home and abroad of stalling on a deal for personal gain.
Hamas’s team is led by Khalil al-Hayya, Hamas’s unofficial foreign minister, who is based in Qatar. Hayya was close to the political chief, Haniyeh, who was assassinated last month. The group’s decision to make its embattled leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, the new head of the politburo has little practical effect on the talks, but is indicative of a more hardline position from the group overall.
The talks have been mediated by the US, Qatar and Egypt. The director of the CIA, William Burns; Qatar’s prime minister and foreign minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani; and Abbas Kamel, Egypt’s intelligence chief and right-hand man of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, have attended most of the negotiations.