Mr Merchan has acknowledged the possibility of incarcerating Trump.
“Everyone knows that if Mr Trump is found guilty in this case he faces a potential jail sentence,” the judge said during jury selection on April 16, explaining why he was dismissing a prospective juror who had written “lock him up” in a 2017 social media post about Trump.
Mr Merchan, most legal experts argue, is more likely to hand Trump probation or home confinement.
If the Republican candidate is put on probation he could still later be jailed: he faces three other criminal cases, over election interference in Georgia, mishandling classified documents and attempting to overthrow the 2020 election.
Trump avoiding jail would be a relief for his secret service. They would have to accompany him to prison, as the former president is entitled to round-the-clock protection.
When Mr Merchan was warning Trump on May 6 that he faced jail if he kept breaching a gag order, he reflected on the sacrifice that would demand of those protection officers.
“Incarceration is truly a last resort for me,” he said. “I worry about [secret service agents] and about what would go into executing such a sanction.”