Kyiv’s audacious cross-border assault into Russia’s Kursk region has certainly ruffled feathers in Moscow. Vladimir Putin denounced it as a “large-scale provocation” while his officials have lined up to tell him the situation is under control – despite fighting continuing into a third day on Thursday and thousands of people having to evacuate the area.
Ukraine has an issue with the number of soldiers it can put on the battlefield and has been trying to up recruitment, so some may ask why it would commit resources to an incursion into Russia, especially when Moscow’s forces are putting Kyiv’s troops under pressure on other points of the 600-mile frontline, including around the key eastern town of Pokrovsk, several hundred miles away in the region of Donetsk.
However, while the operation into Kursk is unlikely to create a long-term strategic opportunity for Kyiv, given that troops will be unable to hold any gained land for long, there are plenty of more symbolic reasons for bursting through the border. The two major reasons are to boost morale and make both Moscow and Western allies think.
Taking the latter of those first, breaking through two sets of Russian defensive lines and making it between six and 10 miles into Russia will force Moscow’s military into restocking their lines, likely pulling troops from an offensive in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, just across the border, which is where it had been making gains against Kyiv’s soldiers. That will both alleviate some of the pressure on Ukraine’s own defensive lines – even if only for a short period – and should also make Moscow more wary of overcommitting around the Kharkiv region and leaving themselves open like this again.
It also shows Kyiv’s allies in the West that its army is still capable of battlefield surprises even when it is under pressure, and can keep operations secret from their enemy. Kyiv will hope that such an ability to manoeuvre will remind its backers that sending more long-range weapons, shells and jets will not be wasted and that it can act nimbly and swiftly even when outnumbered and outgunned. While senior Ukrainian officials have not referred directly to the raid, president Volodymyr Zelensky praised his army’s ability to “surprise” and “get results” during a public appearance on Thursday.
Ukraine will also never miss an opportunity to embarrass Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin, and this is an embarrassment. Whether it was hundreds of troops or thousands, the attack shows the Russian people that Moscow can make mistakes and reminds them that this invasion can come home to roost. While in the public statements about the cross-border assault Russian officials say it is under control, those claims are made a mockery of by the three days of fighting (and potentially more).
On the other side of the coin, the attack is a big morale boost for both troops on the front and the Ukrainian people across the country who have faced repeated and increasing drone and missile attacks on their cities in recent months. The incursion has been tracked and celebrated, while the pronouncements of the Ukrainian advance Russian military bloggers that tend to give a more accurate – if not entirely accurate – picture of the battlefield than the Kremlin have been eagerly devoured.
The attack into Kursk will not fundamentally alter the trajectory of this war – but its symbolic importance should not be underestimated.