Topline
Former President Donald Trump has lost his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in solidly red Iowa, according to a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll conducted by revered pollster J. Ann Selzer—an outlier compared to other surveys in the state but one that should be taken as a serious warning sign for Trump given Selzer’s pristine polling record.
Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump, walks off stage after speaking … [+]
Key Facts
The Iowa Poll of 808 likely voters conducted Oct. 28-31 and released late Saturday (margin of error 3.4 points) shows Harris ahead 47%-44% in the state, after Trump led by four points in Iowa in Selzer’s September poll for the paper and by 18 points in June against President Joe Biden.
The poll found politically independent voters, women and older voters are the driving force behind Harris’ rise in the state, which could be a bellwether for the rest of the country.
Harris has overtaken Trump’s support among independents as a whole in Iowa, and now leads 46%-39%, and she leads by 28 points among independent women, a sharp swing since September’s five-point lead, though independent men still favor Trump by a much smaller 47%-37% margin.
Harris leads women over the age of 65, 63%-28%, and men in that age bracket 47%-45%, the poll found.
Selzer, revered among politicos, got her start in polling as a staffer at the Des Moines Register, and has overseen its Iowa poll since 1987, branching off to found her own firm, Selzer & Co., in the 1990s.
Statistician Nate Silver ranks Selzer among the top two highest rated pollsters in the U.S., second only to the New York Times/Siena, according to his grading scale, which factors in historical accuracy and transparency/disclosure standards, along with the pollster’s statistical bias toward Democratic or Republican candidates.
Selzer’s best-known poll is perhaps her 2008 poll that accurately predicted an influx of first-time caucusgoers would deliver former President Barack Obama a victory.
Chief Critic
Trump and his allies have attacked the poll’s legitimacy, with Trump telling NBC it is “a fake poll done by a Trump hater who oversampled, by a lot, Democrats.” NBC noted that Trump in 2023 praised Selzer as a “talented” pollster when she predicted he would win the Iowa caucuses.
Big Number
52%. That’s the share of men who support Trump, compared to 38% who support Harris, a 13-point decline from Trump’s 59%-32% lead among Iowa men in September, the poll found.
Contra
An Emerson College/RealClearDefense poll of likely Iowa voters released Saturday found Trump leading Harris 53%-43% in the state.
Key Background
Iowa voted for Trump in both 2020 and 2016. Selzer accurately predicted he would win both races in the state, and she accurately predicted Obama would win in 2012 and 2008. Trump and Harris head into Election Day virtually tied nationally and in all seven swing states, with the final pre-election New York Times/Siena College swing state survey showing Harris ahead in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia, while Trump leads in Arizona and the two are tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Further Reading
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads In 2 Surveys, Tie In 3 Others—As Race Tightens (Forbes)
Why A Tiny Polling Error Could Lead To A Trump—Or Harris—Electoral Landslide (Forbes)