Benjamin Netanyahu dropped a bombshell this evening when he fired Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. Outside observers might wonder why the Prime Minister would fire the only member of his government with meaningful military experience when Israel is engaged in a prolonged and complex war on several fronts. Israelis however, have been expecting this to happen for some time.
It was no secret that Gallant and Netanyahu had a fractured relationship from the moment the government came to power. Netanyahu fired Gallant in March last year because of his criticism of the government’s judicial reform that threatened to undermine Israel’s democratic institutions. He backtracked on his decision after tens of thousands of furious Israeli spontaneously took to the streets to protest the decision. Gallant is very popular even among those who don’t support Netanyahu’s government. As a result, tonight, too, protesters have taken to the streets across the country and have already blocked major roads.
Gallant will be replaced by a Netanyahu yes-man Israel Katz. Katz has held several ministerial positions in the past, including in transportation, finance, and agriculture, and has basic military experience as a paratrooper.
Netanyahu claimed that he had to fire Gallant because of the lack of trust between the two. He said tonight that ‘significant rifts opened between myself and Gallant about the way that the war is being managed.’ He then claimed that the enemy knows about the differences between the two and use it for their advantage. One of the major differences has been that Gallant looked more favourably at a ceasefire deal that will bring the hostages back, while Netanyahu has been resisting a deal.
It is probably not a coincidence that Gallant was fired on the day of the American elections, while the Biden administration is preoccupied. It could indicate that Netanyahu places his bet on Donald Trump winning today’s elections. Since the start of the war, the Biden administration has viewed Gallant as the only responsible adult in the cabinet. Having accused Netanyahu of being motivated by personal interests and of being untrustworthy (Biden famously referred to him as a ‘liar’), Gallant has been the only one that the Americans have trusted. This has been crucial because of the US’s significant military aid to Israel and coordination between American and Israeli forces for the defence of Israel. Netanyahu sees a potential change in American leadership as an opportunity to replace a ‘troublemaker’ with someone who has complete loyalty.
Another reason that Netanyahu fired Gallant now, is that the Knesset is about to vote on a law that will enable ultra-orthodox men to avoid military service. In the general public, who bears the burden of lengthy military service – especially during the war – it’s a highly unpopular law. However, if the law doesn’t pass, the ultra-orthodox parties threatened to pull out of the coalition, which would’ve led to the collapse of Netanyahu’s government. Gallant was one of several MKs in the coalition who opposed the bill, which was due to not pass by a small margin. Katz will vote as he is told, and the orthodox MKs have already expressed their support for Netanyahu’s decision.
Netanyahu may also be trying to distract from a major scandal that unfolded this week, when the police arrested several people, including a spokesperson from his own office, who have leaked sensitive information and manipulated media reporting using disinformation. Some of this information could harm Israel’s security and undermine a possible deal to save Israeli hostages held in Gaza.
Gallant’s firing is a dramatic development
Gallant’s sacking comes at a time when Israel is on high alert in anticipation of an Iranian attack. The Israeli Airforce launched a wide scale attack against Iranian military targets two weeks ago. Despite hopes that Iran will choose not to retaliate, having suffered a considerable blow to their aerial defence systems and long range missile arsenal and production line, it’s been reported that Iran plans a ‘strong and complex’ attack.
Opposition MKs responded by accusing Netanyahu of compromising Israel’s security by firing an experienced and accomplished defence minister, who has managed the war with great success. They accused the Prime Minister of being motivated by narrow, personal political interests. Conservative MK Avigdor Lieberman said that ‘if a defence minister can be replaced during war, then a failing Prime Minster, who has neglected the country’s security, can also be replaced.’
Gallant’s firing is a dramatic development. It could influence the chances of achieving an agreement in Lebanon and a ceasefire in Gaza. It could also cause a major crisis of confidence between the IDF and the government that may bring changed in the IDF’s leadership. And it is likely to harm Israel’s relations with its closest ally – especially as Biden will remain president for several weeks after the elections.