Why Justin Trudeau could resign this week

A decade ago, Canadian Prime MinisterJustin Trudeau emerged on the international political scene triumphant after scoring his first term in power.

Almost immediately he garnered global appeal with his boyish charm, inclusive vision and the backings of a political dynasty.

Now he is the centre of speculation, as rumours grow that his unpopularity will lead him to announce his resignation in the coming days.

So how did we end up here?

Why are there calls for Justin Trudeau to resign?

In many ways, Mr Trudeau’s popularity faded as fast as it first spread.

By 2021, his party had lost several seats in parliament due to a series of controversies.

The loss required him to form minority governments with Canada’s left-wing New Democratic Party.

But recently, his popularity has reached an all-time low, backed by the departure of several key allies and cost-of-living pressures.

In December, Mr Trudeau’s deputy prime minister and finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, abruptly resigned in the wake of a spat over the incoming Trump administration.

President-elect Donald Trump said he plans to impose sweeping 25 per cent tariffs on all Canadian products.

Ms Freeland and Mr Trudeau reportedly fell out over disagreements on how to handle the threat.

Notably, in her resignation, Ms Freeland called a recently-announced tax holiday and a plan to send $CA250 ($278) cheques to millions of Canadians a “costly political gimmicks” Canada could “ill afford”.

“Our country is facing a grave challenge,” Ms Freeland wrote.

Shortly before Ms Freeland announced her decision, Housing Minister Sean Fraser also quit.

An attempt to rejig his cabinet then spurred New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh to publicly call for Mr Trudeau’s resignation.

Mr Singh has said he will bring forward a motion of no-confidence at the next sitting.

“Then they let people down again and again.

“Justin Trudeau failed in his biggest job as prime minister: to work for the people.”

How did Trudeau come to power?

Mr Trudeau gained leadership of the Liberals at a dire time for the party.

In 2013, the party had been out of power for more than seven years and reduced to third place in the House of Commons for the first time.

The son of former Liberal prime minister Pierre Trudeau, Mr Trudeau quickly materialised as a young and charismatic politician.

His leadership and message of hope — not unlike that of Barack Obama’s — secured his victory in 2015.

Mr Trudeau honed a brand focused on feminism, environmentalism and Indigenous advocacy.

Asked about the gender equity in his cabinet, his pointed answer became the rallying cry of supporters globally.

Mr Trudeau’s political honeymoon did not last long.

That same gender equity would later be thrown off-balance when two of his cabinet ministers were caught up in a 2019 corruption trial.

What other controversies has Trudeau faced?

In 2016, Canada’s ethics commissioner ruled Mr Trudeau had broken conflict-of-interest rules by accepting a vacation, gifts and flights from the Aga Khan.

It became the first time a Canadian prime minister had been found to have committed such a transgression.

Shortly after the 2019 election campaign began, photos also emerged of Mr Trudeau wearing blackface.

For Mr Trudeau, who had bolstered himself as a champion of multiculturalism, the photos were especially incriminating.

He later apologised and said his privilege gave him a “massive blind spot”.

“Darkening your face, regardless of the context or the circumstances, is always unacceptable because of the racist history of blackface,” he said.

Outside of domestic tensions, Mr Trudeau has been at the centre of a strained relationship with India due to Canada’s ongoing investigation into India’s role in the alleged assassination of a Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar.

Mr Trudeau said there were credible allegations the Indian government had links to the assassination of Mr Nijjar in Canada.

In response, India has condemned Mr Trudeau for being soft on supporters of the Khalistan movement, which it says are extremists.

In August 2023, Mr Trudeau also announced he would separate from his wife Sophie Gregoire Trudeau after 18 years of marriage.

What happens now?

The House of Commons is on winter break until January 27, meaning we will not know the outcome of Mr Singh’s no-confidence motion until then.

Assuming the government allocates the opposition days at the end of the session, the most likely time for Mr Trudeau to be ousted would be in the last 10 days of March.

This would trigger an election at some point in May.

But Canadian newspaper The Globe and Mail has said Mr Trudeau is expected to announce his resignation before a national caucus meeting on Wednesday, local time.

If he does, he will be leaving his party without a leader before this year’s election.

The Liberals will be forced to name an interim leader to take over as prime minister while the party sets up a special leadership convention.

Planning this convention could take months and if an election is called before then, the Liberals would be in the hands of a prime minister not chosen by members.

Alternatively, Canadian governments must demonstrate that they have the confidence of the House of Commons.

If votes on budgets or other spending are considered confidence measures and the government loses one, it falls.

In most cases, an election campaign begins immediately. 

ABC/Reuters