As Israelis marked a sombre day commemorating the 7 October massacre, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) expanded their operation in Lebanon. Their aim is to weaken the Iranian-backed terror organisation Hezbollah, which has been attacking Israel from Lebanon for the past year.
While the Israeli air force bombs specific targets deep inside Lebanon, including the Hezbollah-controlled neighbourhood Dahieh in Beirut, ground forces have been engaging terrorists close to the border. Yesterday, additional forces joined the fighting, concentrating on the south-western region, where there is still a considerable number of terrorists. It is estimated that there are now over 15,000 Israeli troops in Lebanon. As part of the operation, the IDF has uncovered large weapons caches, tunnels used for smuggling and attacks, and other hiding places used to attack Israel.
A ceasefire right now will only strengthen Hezbollah
For now, this does not represent a deviation from Israel’s original goal of clearing the area close to the border from terrorists – who pose a severe and immediate threat to Israeli civilians. The aim is to allow civilians to return to their homes in the towns near the border, after they have spent a year living in temporary accommodation.
The deputy leader of Hezbollah, Naim Qassem, spoke publicly today, claiming that the organisation still maintains considerable military capabilities. He also suggested that Hezbollah may be open to negotiating a truce, if a ceasefire is reached first. Immediately following his speech, a barrage of over 100 rockets were launched at the city of Haifa in northern Israel. This was the single largest attack on Israel by Hezbollah. Most of the rockets have been intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome defence system, but there were three direct hits, resulting in damage to buildings and one reported injury. Earlier that day, Hezbollah fired 24 rockets onto Tiberias, a city on the banks of the Sea of Galilee.
It isn’t surprising that Hezbollah is open to ceasefire negotiations. The organisation has suffered a considerable hit to its capabilities. Thousands of commanders have been injured by exploding walkie-talkies and pagers, and hundreds of terrorists have been killed so far by the IDF.
Hezbollah is also without a leader right now. Israel has killed Hassan Nasrallah, and the two leaders appointed after his death. Hezbollah needs time to regroup and rebuild while it isn’t under fire. A ceasefire right now will only strengthen Hezbollah.
Hezbollah has counted on Iran’s help. The Islamic Republic has had very close relations with Hezbollah since its inception, providing it with support, training and weapons. The group has been Iran’s most trusted and powerful proxy. Iran tried to deliver last week, when it launched a massive barrage of some 200 ballistic missiles against Israel.
Despite the disinformation spread by Iran, claiming that it managed to hit strategic targets in Israel and destroy Israeli fighter jets, the attack ended in failure. Israel, with help from the US, Jordan and other allies, shot down nearly all of the missiles. Iran now awaits Israel’s retaliation, while Israel weighs its options.
So far, Israel has had a certain level of support from its allies for the operation, thanks to the understanding that Hezbollah poses a major threat that cannot exist so close to Israel’s borders. However, as Israel continues fighting Hezbollah, the number of refugees leaving southern Lebanon rises. This risks international public opinion turning against Israel’s actions in Lebanon. The rising number of casualties among IDF soldiers also risks eroding public support in Israel.
Israel will be wise to keep the operation limited in scope and time, and withdraw forces when it has managed to disable Hezbollah’s capabilities, making it less of a threat and needing a long time to recover.
Not everyone in the region is alarmed by Israel’s operation against Hezbollah. Many of Lebanon’s Maronite Christians, Druze and Sunnis object to Hezbollah and would like to see it falter. So would the many Syrian civilians who were subjected to Hezbollah’s brutality when it acted as president Assad’s henchman and crushed the resistance against him.
Hezbollah has been planning to invade Israel in order to massacre and kidnap civilians and soldiers. The group had the capabilities to carry this out on a large scale. It is imperative that Israel successfully fights an organisation that has been terrorising Israelis and others in Lebanon and elsewhere in the Middle East, and that has been established with the intent to kill Jews everywhere.