Relations between India and Canada have sunk to historic lows after Canadian police accused Indian diplomats of carrying out “criminal” activities in Canada, including homicide, extortion, intimidation, coercion and harassment.
In response, Canada expelled six Indian diplomats, including India’s high commissioner to Canada, who it claimed had been involved in threatening behaviour. India retaliated by expelling six senior Canadian diplomats.
Canada’s statements have fuelled allegations by activists and western officials that the Indian government, under the prime minister, Narendra Modi, has carried out a campaign of transnational repression, namely in Canada and the US, that has targeted critics of the state.
India has rejected Canada’s allegations as “ludicrous” and accused the Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, of a “political agenda” to win domestic votes.
How did the diplomatic spat begin?
India and Canada had enjoyed relatively close ties until last year, when a Sikh activist, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, who was born in India but had become a Canadian citizen, was shot dead outside a Sikh temple in Surrey, British Columbia.
Nijjar had campaigned for an independent Sikh nation, known as Khalistan, to be carved out of India’s Punjab state. The movement is banned in India and its most vocal advocates are primarily among the Punjabi overseas diaspora. Nijjar was wanted by Indian authorities and had been designated a “terrorist” in July 2020 for alleged Khalistani-related violence.
In September, Trudeau took the unusual step of publicly stating that there was “credible” information linking Indian government agents to the murder of Nijjar. India vehemently rejected the allegations as “absurd” and accused Canada of harbouring terrorists and “anti-Indian elements” who were a threat to the Indian state.
India then expelled a senior Canadian diplomat and ordered Canada to remove 41 diplomats from its embassy in Delhi. It also suspended all visa applications for Canadians.
Earlier this year, Canadian police arrested three Indian nationals accused of being part of the hit squad that killed Nijjar and said they were were “investigating if there are any ties to the government of India”. India rejected the allegations, saying Canada had a “political compulsion” to blame it.
What new allegations have Canadian police made?
This week, in an explosive press conference, Canadian police officials claimed they had uncovered evidence that senior Indian diplomats and consular officials had been involved in a “criminal network” that had carried out homicides and harassed and threatened Canadian Sikhs.
Canadian police alleged that Indian diplomats and consular staff in Canada had been extorting, threatening and coercing people for information and had been gathering intelligence on individuals suspected of being involved with the Khalistan movement.
They also said they believed Indian agents had been working with a criminal network, run by India’s most notorious mob boss, Lawrence Bishnoi, to carry out targeted attacks and killings.
Canadian officials also said they had evidence that implicated India’s top diplomat in Canada, Sanjay Kumar Verma, and other consular staff in the Nijjar’s killing.
In a subsequent press conference, Trudeau doubled down on the accusations, stating that Canada now had “clear and compelling evidence that agents of the government of India have engaged in, and continue to engage in, activities that pose a significant threat to public safety”.
Trudeau said he had spoken directly to Modi last week and that top national security officials from both countries had met in Singapore over the weekend, where Canadian officials shared the evidence they had collected, detailing Indian involvement in violence and attacks, which India had denied.
Trudeau added that India had “made a monumental mistake in choosing to use their diplomats and organised crime to attack Canadians”.
How has India responded?
After Canada informed the Indian government that Indian diplomats were “persons of interest” in the Nijjar murder investigation, India’s foreign ministry responded with outrage.
In a statement on Monday, the Indian government rejected the accusations as “preposterous imputations” and accused the Trudeau government of a “political agenda”.
Contrary to claims by the Canadian police and Trudeau, Delhi has maintained that Ottawa has not shared any credible evidence to back up its claims of an Indian link to the murder.
India has also repeatedly accused Trudeau of being sympathetic to Khalistani separatists, as his party enjoys substantial backing from the country’s sizeable Sikh community. Canada has the highest population of Sikhs outside their home state of Punjab.
On Monday night, India announced it was “withdrawing” six senior diplomats from Canada over safety concerns. However, Canadian officials who briefed several news publications said Canada had expelled the Indian diplomats first.
Who else has been targeted?
Nijjar is not the only Khalistani activist living abroad believed to have been targeted by the Indian government.
Sikh activists and western officials have said that evidence increasingly points to the Modi government carrying out a campaign of transnational repression, which is when foreign governments take actions beyond their borders to intimidate, silence harass or harm members of their diaspora and exile communities.
Last November, US investigators said they had thwarted an attempt by an Indian government official to murder Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a firebrand Sikh separatist and dual citizen of the US and Canada.
Other prominent Sikh Khalistani activists in the US, Canada and the UK also said they had also been given warnings of threats to their lives.
According to intelligence officials who spoke to the Guardian this year, India had also ordered the assassination of dozens of individuals in Pakistan, including Sikhs, as part of a wider strategy to eliminate terrorists living on foreign soil.
What happens now?
Bilateral relations between India and Canada have now completely broken down and show little sign of improving any time soon.
Canada has said that its investigation into the Nijjar killing and the alleged wider campaign of violence by India is continuing and it is collaborating with the Five Eyes, an intelligence-sharing alliance comprising the US, the UK, Australia, Canada and New Zealand.
India has insisted that it has yet to see adequate evidence to back up Canada’s claims against Indian diplomats, and Canada will be under mounting pressure to go public with what it alleges to have uncovered and to officially press charges.
The US has said it took the allegations of India’s involvement in attempted killings on US soil “with utmost seriousness”. On Monday, the US state department said an Indian inquiry committee set up to investigate the plot would travel to Washington on Tuesday as part of its investigations.
Canada’s foreign minister noted on Monday that India was cooperating with US officials but said it had refused to cooperate in the Canadian investigation.
The saga could have significant geopolitical implications. India is seen as a growing superpower and has become an important security and economic ally for western countries such as the US, UK and France. However, those relationships could be complicated if evidence mounts that the Modi government has been complicit in transnational repression.