So yes, Ukraine may be able to target some ammunition, weapons, and troops mustering hubs inside Kursk.
“But that is assuming Russia has not already dispersed them. And it is my understanding that they have,” said Konrad Muzyka, the director of Rochan, an independent open source intelligence consultancy based in Poland. “So the targets available to the Ukrainians will be limited.”
Too late
The second limitation is related to time. Too much has been allowed to pass.
The first time Ukraine received precision missiles from the West, in autumn 2022, they really did change the game.
The GMLRS rockets first provided with US-made Himars wreaked havoc on Russian command and control and logistics and played a key role in the success of Ukrainian offensives in Kherson and Kharkiv.
But that was two years ago.
Russia has had ample time to adapt, both by dispersing logistics and troop concentrations and in developing jamming and interception capabilities.
After a year of asking, Ukraine first received Atacms, which are fired from the same launch vehicles but have a 300km range, in late 2023.
They were used to devastating effect on Russian-occupied Ukraine, including in several high-profile strikes on air bases in Crimea.