Even before Sunday’s new attacks, Israel’s military had boasted that it had killed most senior leaders of Hezbollah. With the news that Nabil Qaouk, another major figure within the Shia Muslim militant Islamist organisation, has died in an airstrike in Beirut, the job of eliminating the top echelons of Hezbollah’s military command structure appears almost complete. The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the veteran secretary general of Hezbollah on Friday, was only the most spectacular and high-profile killing in an unprecedented effort over many months.
Qaouk, like many of the 19 senior Hezbollah officials who have been killed, joined as a teenager in the very earliest years of the organisation’s 41-year history and went on to fill a series of military command positions. Recently, Qaouk had begun to operate in more political roles and was a frequent traveller to Iran, where he had a good relationship with some of the top officials in the regime.
Other Hezbollah veterans killed in recent days include Ibrahim Aqil, a second founder member of the organisation’s military wing. Aqil, who was in his early 60s, is believed to have been the acting commander of the Radwan [special forces] brigades.
Fuad Shukr, who died in July, had been involved in the massive suicide bombings launched against US, French and Israeli targets in 1983 by a coalition of Islamist Shia groups that was a precursor to Hezbollah. He went on to play a key role in developing Hezbollah’s military capabilities, took on a role as chief of staff within Hezbollah and was a senior military adviser to Nasrallah.
Another casualty of Israel’s campaign was Ali Karaki, who had responsibility for military operations along the contested border with Israel. Analysts say Karaki, who has fulfilled a number of clandestine international roles in his long militant career, was being groomed for a senior leadership role within Hezbollah. He died alongside Nasrallah in the massive Israel Defense Forces strike on Beirut on Friday.
So too did Ibrahim Jazini, who was responsible for internal security within Hezbollah. Though without any personal following and something of a loner within the organisation, Jazini was trusted and liked by Nasrallah.
The loss of such men leaves Hezbollah in total disarray, stripped of capable operators who possessed deep military and international experience.
“Hezbollah is facing a reality much worse than any worst-case scenario they might have war-gamed. The chain of command is obliterated,” said Naveed Ahmed, an independent Gulf-based security analyst and expert on Hezbollah.
The most obvious candidate to succeed Nasrallah is Hashem Safieddine, who chairs Hezbollah’s executive council. A cousin of Nasrallah, Safieddine was born in 1964 in southern Lebanon and is another founder member. He is thought to have spent many years in Qom, the Iranian religious city, and has been entrusted by Hezbollah with a variety of tasks over the decades, including managing the organisation’s extensive portfolio of legal and illegal businesses.
A powerful public speaker, Safieddine is popular within the organisation and among its sponsors in Tehran. Last year he said: “It may take one war, two wars, three wars, multiple confrontations, military confrontation, the sacrifice of martyrs, bearing the burden, dealing with the consequences, but ultimately, [Israel] must come to an end.”
Israel’s assassination campaign has so far targeted Hezbollah’s military commanders, leaving the top political echelons largely unscathed. Safieddine sits on the Jihad Council of the organisation however, so may soon be targeted too.
“It is impossible to predict who would be a successor right now as the Israeli targeted strikes continue to take out commanders. It’s in Hezbollah’s interest to not publicly declare a successor. Nasrallah’s funeral, if at all held, would be a rich source of intelligence and targets,” Ahmed said.