Wednesday, November 6, 2024

What a Trump victory means for the world

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US security services briefed Trump on a foiled suspected Iranian assassination plan in September. An Israeli man was arrested the same month on suspicion of working with Iran on a plan to kill Benjamin Netanyahu.

But Trump has also criticised how long the war in Gaza is taking. In April he urged Israel: “You’ve got to get it over with, and you have to get back to normalcy.”

He thanked Arab-American and Muslim voters who supported him because they believed he would bring peace to the region.

On Wednesday, Hamas urged Trump to “learn from Biden’s mistakes” in trying to broker a ceasefire.

‘Politically devastating’

Ordinary Gazans displaced by the Israeli military campaign were divided between the hope that any change must be a good thing, and the sense that Trump would simply lift even the tiny restraints Mr Biden had placed on the Israeli campaign.

“Despite the destruction, death and displacement that we have witnessed, what is coming will be more difficult, it will be politically devastating,” a man called Abu Osama told Reuters.

The truth is that Trump’s Middle East policy may not yet be fully formed.

It’s no secret that the regime in Tehran would have preferred Ms Harris to win. Trump’s last stint in office saw him rip up the nuclear deal, kill Qassem Soleimani, a Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) chief, and pursue a “maximum pressure” policy that threw Iran’s economy into chaos.

Mr Netanyahu, who on election day fired Yoav Gallant, Israel’s former defence minister, for advocating a deal to free the hostages and end the war in Gaza among other issues, will feel as though he has the backing to continue the multi-front Middle Eastern war until total victory, whatever that means.

Trump wants ‘Iran to succeed’

But Trump has also spoken about ending wars, not starting them.

“We can expect a continuation of the maximum pressure strategy… with the goal of changing Tehran’s malign behaviour,” said Holly Dagres, an Iran watcher at the Atlantic Council.

“But Trump also said that he wasn’t interested in regime change and wanted Iran to succeed and not have a nuclear weapon – meaning there is room for a deal of some sort.”

Trump is also receptive to other regional elites, particularly Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman, who understands his transactional approach to dealmaking. He also wants the violence to end and to find a viable path to a Palestinian state.

“Gulf states, chiefly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, likely believe there is more to be gained under the second Trump presidency, such as US security guarantees, arms deals, and a tougher stance on Iran,” said Dr Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle Eastern security at the Royal United Services Institute. 

“It is difficult to see how a Trump administration will pivot to improve the situation for Palestinians.

“Trump in recent weeks indicated that he was prepared to give Israel freer rein, provided that the war ended by the time he entered office. What happens between now and January will be watched closely, and nervously, by those in the Middle East,” said Dr Ozcelik.

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