Monday, December 23, 2024

Were Israel’s hawks right all along?

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Israel’s defence establishment typically avoids Mr Netanyahu’s talk of “decisive victory”, operating more in shades of grey.

For example, the Israeli navy is over the moon about Friday night’s much less publicised destruction of Hezbollah’s land-to-sea missile capability, something it has feared for years, not just as a threat to its ships, but to Israel’s offshore gas production.

“The defence establishment of course welcomes the destruction of Hezbollah’s military capability. But this is not the same as its terror capacity. This is where the politicians and the generals differ,” said one Israeli analyst.

“The threats facing Israel have not disappeared but have been transformed” added Orna Mizrahi, a retired lieutenant colonel now a Lebanon and Hezbollah specialist at INSS.

“It is essential for Israel to understand these evolving threats in order to prepare effectively and to identify opportunities that offer strategic advantage.”

There are few modern wars that have been settled decisively with brute force, with perhaps Sri Lanka’s terrible but decisive victory over the Tamil Tigers in 2009 being the most recent example.

Of course, the West’s misadventures in Iraq – where George W Bush got carried away with his own shock and awe and celebrated his own “victory” far too early – show the other side of the coin.

Following what were supposed to be overwhelming and, yes, “decisive”, interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq against the “axis of evil”, the US and its allies spent two decades fighting Islamic State and other terrorist insurgents.

It’s something that British and American troops are still very much involved in to this day.

But Israel’s future need not follow the same path. 

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