Topline
The first polls released after Thursday’s presidential debate—characterized by a rocky performance by President Joe Biden—show an increasing number of Americans believe the 81-year-old president is too old and should drop out of the race, though at least two polls found Biden still maintains a narrow edge over former President Donald Trump.
A majority of Americans believe President Joe Biden is too old to serve as president after CNN’s … [+]
Key Facts
Only one in five respondents in an Ipsos poll of over 2,500 likely voters taken after the debate called Biden’s mental fitness “good” or “excellent,” a seven-point drop from another Ipsos poll conducted just days before the debate.
Among likely Democratic voters, the drop was even more severe, with 42% saying after the debate they believe Biden is mentally fit, compared to 56% beforehand.
Meanwhile, 15% of respondents in that poll (conducted June 27-28) said Biden is physically fit to be president, compared to 21% who said the same before the debate (conducted June 20-25).
Another 60% of respondents in a Morning Consult poll conducted one day after the debate said Biden should “probably” or “definitely” be replaced with another Democratic candidate in the November election—including 47% of Democratic voters.
Among Morning Consult respondents who watched the debate, 78% said Biden is too old, an increase from a Morning Consult poll released just days before the debate, when 64% of all voters said the same (45% of voters said Trump is too old after the debate, a slight increase from the 42% who said the same before the debate).
Only 35% of respondents in Morning Consult’s post-debate poll said Biden is mentally fit, another drop from just days before the debate, when 43% of respondents called him mentally fit—while Trump’s mental fitness numbers rose from 47% to 54%.
A YouGov poll conducted Thursday night and Friday also found 30% of Democrats want a new candidate to replace Biden, compared to only 13% of Republicans who said the GOP should nominate a new candidate over Trump.
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Contra
Despite voters’ worries, the debate hasn’t dented Biden’s standing against Trump yet, with most surveys still showing a neck-and-neck race. Biden actually gained some ground according to Ipsos polling: Trump and Biden were tied 44%-44% before the debate, but Biden took a 46%-44% lead afterwards. Morning Consult’s polling delivered a similar result: Biden was tied with Trump 44%-44% before the debate, and Biden led Trump 45%-44% afterwards. According to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average, however, Trump remains on top by a small margin, with 41.3% of voters supporting him over 40.7% for Biden.
What To Watch For
Whether the debate will shake up the race. Despite voters’ concerns, only 4% of respondents in Ipsos’ poll said they would give less consideration to voting for Biden after the debate, compared to 2% who said the same for Trump. Voters have largely already made up their minds ahead of the election, but in a tight race, even a small percentage of voters changing their votes could be enough to change the outcome. In a pre-debate Quinnipiac University poll, 13% of Biden supporters said they could change their minds on who to vote for depending on the debate, compared to 12% of Trump supporters and 32% of people who support independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who did not qualify for CNN’s debate.
Will Biden Drop Out?
Biden vowed to stay in the race despite growing calls among political pundits and The New York Times’ editorial board to drop out, admitting in a Friday rally he does not “debate as well as [he] used to” and said he’s “not a young man,” but pledging to “win” in November. Despite pushback from pundits, most elected Democrats have also stood by Biden while acknowledging he had a rough showing. Trump also speculated Biden will stay in the race, claiming in a competing rally on Friday that Biden’s still outperforms other Democrats in recent polls, while slamming Biden as “grossly incompetent.” If Biden changes his mind and does drop out, analysts believe Vice President Kamala Harris or a group of other Democrats—including California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer—could replace him as the party’s nominee (Newsom denied rumors of a presidential run).
Key Background
CNN aired the first of two scheduled presidential debates Thursday night. The 90-minute back-and-forth devolved into a series of insults, with Biden calling Trump a “convicted felon,” “loser” and a “sucker,” and Trump labeling Biden a “criminal.” But the most eyebrow-raising aspect of Biden’s performance was his hoarse and whispery voice and his often rambling and incoherent responses to some questions, appearing to lose his train of thought and correct himself, escalating concerns among Democrats about his advanced age and mental acuity. While Trump’s performance was marked, at times, by tangential arguments, including one over golf, and several falsehoods—including about “post-birth” abortions—analysts say he came out better than Biden. Some 57% of respondents in Morning Consult’s post-debate poll said Trump outperformed Biden, including 19% of Democrats, 93% of Republicans and 60% of independents—consistent with a pre-debate poll that showed 44% of voters predicted Trump to win, over 41% for Biden. Similarly, Ipsos found three in five respondents who watched the debate said Trump came out on top, while only 21% said Biden won, though respondents were largely critical of Trump’s performance as well, with 40% describing his performance as “good” or “excellent” (only 8% of respondents said the same of Biden’s performance).