Golf betting tips: US Open third round
3pts Brendon Todd to win his three-ball at 20/21 (BoyleSports)
2pts double Hubbard and Lee to win their two-balls at 13/5 (General)
2pts double Matsuyama and Cantlay to win their two-balls at 19/10 (General)
1pt four-fold Hubbard, Lee, Matsuyama and Cantlay at 9/1 (General)
The stage is set for a fantastic weekend at the US Open, where Ludvig Aberg is out in front. In what’s already become a familiar pattern, the Swede has pounded fairways and greens and looks for all the world like he’s ready to win a major in just his third go. To do so, he’ll have to fend off some of the best in the game.
Bryson DeChambeau is thriving and it’s beyond impressive that he’s contending at a course which might once have foxed him, whereas Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau and Patrick Cantlay boast three of the most underrated short-games in the sport. Each has leaned on it at points and while McIlroy’s putter was a big problem on Friday, everything else looks in good shape.
Aberg deserves favouritism over McIlroy and DeChambeau in that order, which is precisely how they bet heading into round three. Like many, I’d be somewhat tempted by Hideki Matsuyama from three adrift given his credentials, and if forced would lean towards him over Finau at the prices. These are the only two contenders on my pre-tournament shortlist and if either can putt well enough this weekend, they’d be hard to keep out of the first three.
For now it’s a watching brief but there are some two-balls which appeal, none more so than BRENDON TODD. He’s in with Luke Clanton, a powerhouse amateur with a bright future, but this is the third round of a major and I’ll take the PGA Tour winner to put those smarts to use.
Todd has a fabulous short-game, we know that shorter hitters can score here even if longer ones dominate the top of the leaderboard, and I think experience has been left out of calculations here. Clanton’s driving has got him this far but there’s a bit of pressure now there’s a three-way battle for leading amateur and the inherently more intense setting of Saturday at Pinehurst.
I’d have Todd much closer to 1/2 than even-money and for that reason he rates a bet. He’s advised as a single given the timings and the short turnaround from this preview hitting the website, but those in time may wish to perm him with some later selections.
Among the options who appeal is MARK HUBBARD, who looks good value at odds-against versus Adam Svensson.
I’m a fan of Svensson but Hubbard is a really solid player whose form is a bit stronger overall.
It’s no bad thing, with the course set to become even more repellent, that he has the superior short-game whereas Svensson’s ball-striking is his strength, and the latter does have the propensity to throw in a complete shocker particularly with the putter.
Just after Hubbard tees off, MIN WOO LEE looks a strong odds-on favourite to beat Emiliano Grillo.
These are two very different players, yet they’ve done things similarly so far. The trouble for Grillo is that continuing to putt well throughout the weekend seems unlikely, whereas for Lee it’s very much a possibility.
With the Australian the better player, better suited to a firm, fast golf course and longer off the tee, the fact Grillo isn’t out-hitting him to this point suggests that come Sunday night there could well be a gap between them on the leaderboard in Lee’s favour.
Finally, there are two Europeans who are somewhat surprising names in the mix and both have got there largely because of their putters.
Those two factors combined make Matthieu Pavon and Thomas Detry appear vulnerable and against HIDEKI MATSUYAMA and PATRICK CANTLAY that could certainly be the case.
Cantlay in particular appears overpriced at 5/6 for all that I’m a fan of Detry, and these two look the strongest double of the evening at almost 2/1.
Posted at 1230 BST on 15/06/24
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