US nonfarm payrolls
- Prior was +272K (revised to +218K)
Details of the May 2024 jobs report:
- Two-month net revision -111K vs -15K prior
- Unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.0% expected (4.054% unrounded)
- Prior unemployment rate 4.0%
- Participation rate 62.6% vs 62.5% prior
- U6 underemployment rate 7.4% vs 7.4% prior
- Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected
- Prior avg hourly earnings +0.4% m/m
- Average hourly earnings +3.9% y/y vs +3.9% expected
- Average weekly hours 34.3 vs 34.3 expected
- Change in private payrolls +136K vs +190K expected
- Change in manufacturing payrolls -8K vs +6K expected
- Household survey +116K vs -408K prior
- Government jobs +70K vs +43K prior
- Full time -28K
- Part time +50K
Fed pricing for year end before the report was for 49 bps of easing with an 80% chance of a Sept cut. USD/JPY was trading at 160.68 ahead of the data.
Afterwards, pricing has ticked up to 50 bps but Sept odds are unchanged. USD/JPY has been all over the place, rising, the falling to 160.33 and now higher at 161.07.
I certainly take it as a dovish report and highlighted that private payrolls were the spot to watch before the data.