US consumer confidence May
- Prior was 97.0 (revised to 97.5)
Details:
- Present situation index 143.1 vs 142.9 prior
- Expectations index 74.6 vs 66.4 prior
- Jobs hard-to-get 13.5 vs 15.5 prior
- 16.9% of consumers expect their incomes to increase, from 16.8% last month
- 12-month inflation expectations 5.4% vs 5.3%
“Confidence improved in May after three consecutive months of decline,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.
“Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions was slightly less
positive than last month. However, the strong labor market continued to
bolster consumers’ overall assessment of the present situation. Views
of current labor market conditions improved in May, as fewer respondents
said jobs were ‘hard to get,’ which outweighed a slight decline in the
number who said jobs were ‘plentiful.’ Looking ahead, fewer consumers
expected deterioration in future business conditions, job availability,
and income, resulting in an increase in the Expectation Index.
Nonetheless, the overall confidence gauge remained within the relatively
narrow range it has been hovering in for more than two years.”
This is a nice rebound to this report after months of deterioration and it’s led to a rapid turnaround in the US dollar. However a big portion of the dollar buying came ahead of the data, which is curious indeed.
In the bigger picture, here are comments from Tony Pasquariello, Global Head of Hedge Fund Coverage at Goldman Sachs “.. the US is growing above trend .. wages are growing faster than the rest of the inflation basket, so real disposable income is rising .. alongside this is a MASSIVE wealth effect from the stock market and the housing market .. and, all of this comes on top of healthy household balance sheets. .. US consumption is more durable than the bears believe.”