US CPI yy
Headline measures:
- Prior y/y 3.3%
- m/m -0.1% versus +0.1% expected
- Prior m/m 0.1%
- Unrounded % vs +0.313% m/m prior
Core measures and details:
- Core CPI m/m +0.1% versus +0.2% expected. Prior month 0.2%
- Unrounded core +0.065% vs +0.163% prior
- Core CPI y/y +3.3% versus 3.4% expected. Prior month was 3.4%
- Supercore m/m -0.054% vs -0.045% prior
- Supercore y/y +4.651% vs +4.8% y/y prior
- Shelter +0.2% versus +0.4% prior month
- Shelter y/y +5.2% vs +5.4% prior
- Real weekly earnings +0.3% vs +0.4% prior
- Food +0.2% m/m vs +0.1% m/m prior
- Food +2.2% y/y vs +2.1% y/y prior
- Energy -2.0% m/m vs -0.2% m/m prior
- Energy +1.0% vs +3.7% y/y prior
- Rents +0.3% m/m vs +0.4% prior
- Owner’s equivalent rent +0.3% vs +0.4% prior
- Motor vehicle insurance +0.9% vs -0.1% m/m prior
Before the report, the market was pricing 49 bps of easing before year end prior to the report with a 70% chance of a cut in September. Those numbers are now 57.5 bps and a 92% chance of a September cut.
A couple numbers look wonky here with used autos -1.5% m/m and airline fares -5.0% m/m but the overall picture is unambiguous in a shift towards lower inflation.