If Donald Trump does win this election — and, to be clear, that is a very big if — inflation will be a massive factor.
After years of price rises remaining low, they spiked over the past couple of years and groceries have become a lot more expensive. Republicans blame the Biden administration for this, while Democrats say wider issues including the war in Ukraine are responsible.
CNN’s exit poll makes clear how widespread the effects have been. Just a quarter of Americans say they have experienced no hardship from inflation.
Democracy and the economy were the two top issues for US voters, according to preliminary exit poll data. Some 35 per cent said democracy was the key issue that would determine their vote, while 31 per cent put the economy first. Abortion, with 14 per cent, and immigration, at 11 per cent, were the next most important issues to voters. Foreign affairs was fifth with four per cent.
The results vary between Democrats and Republicans. Fifty six per cent of Democrats put democracy as their most important issue, compared to 12 per cent of Republicans. Fifty one per cent of Republicans put the economy as their top issue.
The first exit poll information has been released showing widespread dissatisfaction with the state of the country.
According to CNN, only 7 per cent of voters were enthusiastic and 19 per cent were satisfied with the state of the US. A further 43 per cent said they were dissatisfied, and 29 per cent said they were angry.
Asked about “America’s best days”, 61 per cent said they were in the future, and 34 per cent responded that they were in the past. The question remains whether voters blame Kamala Harris, the incumbent vice-president, for the current malaise, or Trump, the former president.
The preliminary figures showed President Biden’s approval rating was 41 per cent, with 58 per cent of voters disapproving of his presidency.
Louisa Clarence-Smith, US Business Editor
Equity markets in New York recorded their best daily gains in more than a month. The S&P 500, widely seen as a barometer of the health of the world’s largest economy, closed up 1.2 per cent while the technology-dominated Nasdaq Composite index, home to America’s biggest technology companies, finished 1.4 per cent higher.
The volatility index, known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge”, hovered at 20.6, down 6 per cent from Monday but up from 15 in September. It remains at half the level seen in the 2020 presidential election, in a sign that markets remained relatively sanguine about the outcome of the election.
‘This will be in the history books’
Marley Hillman, left, and Caia Joseph
PETE KIEHART FOR THE TIMES
Damian Whitworth in Washington
Caia Joseph and Marley Hillman, 18-year-old freshmen students at Howard University, encapsulate the state of mind of Democratic voters gathering for Harris’s election night party.
They are very excited and very nervous.
“It’s actually insane that we are here. Surreal. This is our first year being able to vote. This will be in the history books,” Joseph said. “I’m nervous because it is so unprecedented. We have never had this situation in our country: a black woman running against a white male. She stands for so much. She represents us. I’ve never seen someone in such a high power position that looks like me.”
The young women were concerned that if there is violence after the election the university would be a target. Hillman was fairly sure Harris would win. “It’s nerve-wracking but I’m pretty confident.”
Donald Trump has posted on his Truth Social account, warning of “massive CHEATING” in Philadelphia. It is unclear where his information is coming from.
Exit polls can provide an early snapshot to expectant political watchers of candidate support, voter sentiment and who is voting. The first exit poll data was due to be released after 5pm ET, which is 10pm GMT.
The surveys are conducted at 500 randomly selected polling booths, both on election day and in the weeks leading up to it, and by phone. Voters are asked a set of about 25 questions. Edison Research, a data analysis firm, conducts the polls on behalf of the broadcasters CNN, ABC, CBS and NBC. News organisations analyse the raw data to draw indications about which way the election may be headed.
Along with a national exit poll, state-wide surveys are being conducted in battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Exit polls are also being taken in states with competitive down-ballot races such as Texas, Florida and Ohio.
When are results expected?
Two and a half hours until the first polls close, and everyone wants to know when we will begin to learn results. Here is a timeline of what is to come — for GMT, add five hours.
7pm ET: Polls close in the first six states, including the key swing state of Georgia, which has 16 electoral votes. Georgia’s secretary of state thinks 70 per cent of votes could be counted by 8pm.
7:30pm ET: Polls close in North Carolina, another vital battleground.
8:30pm ET: By now, polls will be closed in half of all the states.
9pm ET: Polls close in 15 states, including the battlegrounds of Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin — plus in Texas and New York.
10pm ET: Voting ends in the final battleground state, Nevada.
1am ET: Polls close in Alaska, officially concluding the voting.
Welcome to our coverage of US election night
We have reporters in ten states to bring you the latest updates and analysis — and you can track up-to-the-minute results as they come in with our tracking page.