Tuesday’s vote will be the most unpredictable in American history: never in modern polling has there been a race where the final polls were so close.
Pollsters say the 2004 election was the last one to be this tight, with polls putting John Kerry and George W. Bush at a near tie — but that contest was not as close as Harris and Trump.
The polls have also remained incredibly stable: they have been more consistent in the final month of the race than ever before. Nothing either Harris or Trump has done has moved the needle.
Jim VandeHei, co-founder and CEO of the news website Axios, was asked on Sunday about the seven swing states and said: “I felt the same way two years ago, two months ago, two hours ago. Nobody has a clue.”
Early voting records broken
Early voting has now ended and nearly a third of the electorate — 75 million people — have already cast their ballots.
In nine states more than half of all registered voters have already shown up at the polls.
Records for early voting were broken in Georgia and North Carolina despite the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene, which made landfall in Florida on September 26 and ravaged North Carolina.
Michael McDonald, a professor of politics at the University of Florida who tracks voting, said that the overall turnout for the election will probably be between the 60 per cent of eligible voters who turned out in 2016 and the two thirds of eligible voters who voted in 2020.
The 2020 election, pitting Donald Trump against Joe Biden, saw the highest turnout rate for any national election since 1900.
When will the results be announced?
The presidential campaign is entering its final phases as voters prepare to head to the polls on Tuesday, but it could be several days before a winner is announced.
In 2020 it took five days to call the election for President Biden — the longest delay since 2000, when it took five weeks to confirm the result.
• Read our guide to the key timings: When will the US election results be announced?
Running-mates hit the swing states
Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, has four rallies today: in Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania.
Tim Walz, Harris’s running-mate, will hold three rallies in Wisconsin and one in Detroit, while her husband, Doug Emhoff, has an event in North Carolina.
President Biden is not on the schedule, but his wife Jill has three events in North Carolina.
Candidates make final push for votes
Kamala Harris held a campaign rally at Michigan State University in East Lansing on Sunday night. Today her focus is Pennsylvania
ADAM JAMES DEWEY/ANADOLU/GETTY IMAGES
It’s the eve of the election and both campaigns are engaged in a whirlwind of final rallies in swing states.
Donald Trump has four events: first up is North Carolina, then he travels to Pennsylvania for two rallies, before closing his campaign in Grand Rapids, Michigan — as he did in 2016 and 2020.
Kamala Harris, meanwhile, is blitzing Pennsylvania: she has events in Scranton — where President Biden was born — and Allentown, before closing her campaign with Katy Perry in Pittsburgh and Lady Gaga in Philadelphia