The Economist estimates that between 462,000 and 728,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the war against Ukraine. These figures are based on leaked documents from the US Department of Defense, as well as official and unofficial sources,
The British newspaper published four charts, with the first showing estimates from both official and unofficial sources over a certain period.
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The latest data from July 5, provided by Russian media outlets Mediazona and Meduza, indicate that Russian deaths have exceeded 100,000, ranging from 106,000 to 140,000 as of June 21.
Much of this analysis is based on inheritance data and obituaries found on social media. However, since February 6, Russian media data has relied on trends due to disrupted access to official records.
The Economist notes that these estimates are consistent with other sources. French officials recently reported a total loss of 150,000 Russian soldiers as of May, and BBC Russia estimated at least 113,000 deaths before June.
Data from Mediazona and Meduza also show a significant increase in Russian losses during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer of 2023 following the battles for Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar.
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These figures do not include Ukrainians recruited by Russia from occupied territories or seriously injured Russian soldiers who cannot return to battle. The Economist calculates that for every Russian soldier killed in battle, there are about three to four wounded.
By mid-June, The Economist estimated that between 462,000 and 728,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded, exceeding the number of Russian invasion forces in February 2022. French and British officials believe that around 500,000 Russians were seriously injured or killed by early May.
The demographic impact of these losses is significant. The highest casualties are among Russian men aged 35 to 39, with an estimated 27,000 killed from February 2022 to June 2024. Approximately 2% of all Russian men aged 20 to 50 have been either killed or seriously injured in Ukraine since the war began.
The final chart from The Economist shows that Russia’s losses in Ukraine since 2022 exceed those in all its wars since World War II combined. However, Western officials and analysts believe these significant losses are unlikely to impact Russia’s manpower supply in the near and medium term.
In addition, analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War estimated in June that Russian losses could amount to up to 20,000 killed and wounded monthly. British intelligence reported in late May that the average Russian personnel loss in May was more than 1,200 people per day, the highest figure since the war began.