A Russian vehicle explodes in Kursk.
Ukrainian defense ministry capture
On Sunday, Russian and Ukrainian forces launched separate but simultaneous attacks along different axes around the 250-square-mile salient that Ukrainian troops carved out of western Russia’s Kursk Oblast in August.
It’s possible one assault was meant to spoil the other, but it’s not clear which. Did the Ukrainians know the Russians were coming? Did the Russians know the Ukrainians were coming? It’s hard to say—and it could be a few days before the smoke clears and the motivations and outcomes are apparent.
The Russians attacked in a large force of armored vehicles, targeting the northwestern edge of the salient around the villages of Malaya Loknya, Leonidovo and Sverdlikovo.
The attack, involving elements of the 155th and 810th Naval Infantry Brigades and the 106th Airborne Division, included around 40 vehicles, making it “the largest since our invasion,” according to Kriegsforscher, a Ukrainian marine corps drone operator who has been fighting in Kursk for months.
Ukrainian brigades and drone teams, including Kriegsforscher’s, have defeated countless Russian assaults in this area since last fall, deploying a combination of mines, missiles, artillery and drones to blast Russian assault groups predictably moving along the same few roads leading into the salient.
At the same time those 40 Russian vehicles rolled out, Ukrainian troops riding in armored trucks and tracked and wheeled infantry fighting vehicles—potentially from the 95th Air Assault Brigade—followed a clutch of mine-clearing vehicles plowing a path toward Berdin, a village in the no-man’s-land north of the Kursk salient.
Russian drones, including jam-proof models steered via fiber-optic cable, swarmed the Ukrainian vehicles, scoring several confirmed hits.
The Ukrainians may have advanced just shy of two miles, but it’s not clear whether they’ll be able to dig in and hold the ground they’ve gained. If the Ukrainians succeed and the Russians fail, the difference may come down to surprise.
The Russians have been attacking the Kursk salient with the same brigades and regiments in the same areas multiple times a week, week after week since at least October. Worse, these attacks have been heavy on armor—and easy-to-spot vehicles are especially vulnerable to enemy drones. When tanks lead the way, “no one reaches the objective,” one Russian blogger complained.
The Ukrainian assault struck a part of the front line that has been relatively quiet lately, and thus may have enjoyed greater surprise. “Some Russian channels have been warning recently of a Ukrainian build up near Kursk and a potential offensive,” noted Rob Lee, an analyst with the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia. But the build-up apparently took place far enough from the eventual location of the attack that the Russians couldn’t prepare specific defenses.
Moreover, the Ukrainian assault was led by mine-clearing vehicles and relied on armored trucks and fighting vehicles for transportation, but the transports seem to have dropped off their infantry passengers as quickly as possible before speeding back to the main Ukrainian line.
“The equipment is trying to land troops in a ‘carousel,’” a Russian blogger reported. This combined with heavy radio jamming might minimize, although not eliminate, Ukrainian losses to drones.