As Ukraine braces for its toughest winter since the start of Russia’s war, Kyiv’s push to garner support for its ‘victory’ and ‘peace’ plans has reached a decisive crossroads.
When Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets with US President Joe Biden on Thursday (26 September), it could be the most significant push to date to convince the White House of the need for security guarantees.
Zelenskyy’s effort during the week-long US trip was to garner support for what Ukraine has dubbed a “victory plan” to end the war.
The diplomatic push comes ahead of what Kyiv expects to be the toughest winter since the start of Russia’s war two and a half years ago, with Moscow’s targeting of Ukraine’s energy supply prompting fears for the already battered morale of the population.
“It will be a tough winter, and before that, we need to secure Western support that will give us an advantage on the battlefield,” one Ukrainian diplomat told Euractiv.
The specifics of Zelenskyy’s ‘victory plan’ have been deliberately kept secret until the blueprint can be formally presented to Biden in person, Ukrainian officials say.
White House officials say they expect to hear more concrete details on how the Biden administration could offer support in the four remaining months of its term.
Long-range weapons, NATO membership
According to a senior US State Department official, Kyiv’s ‘victory plan’ addresses the military needs on the battlefield, internal political changes, and economic support.
Some aspects of the blueprint have emerged, including the need for Ukraine’s Western allies to provide long-range strike capabilities and other decisive weapons long sought by Kyiv, including the removal of use restrictions on Western weapons.
Washington so far has refused to lift these restrictions despite pressure from Ukraine’s European allies, fearing a potential escalation of the war.
According to Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, the plan also includes the security guarantee of NATO membership, a key and long-standing point of contention between Kyiv and Moscow.
Ukraine’s Western allies, especially Washington and Berlin, have been sceptical about providing Kyiv with an invitation to join the military alliance.
Both US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and the country’s UN envoy Linda Thomas-Greenfield, who were reportedly presented with the rationale behind Kyiv’s proposal, have said the plan “could work”.
Timing, a key question
Nevertheless, Western diplomats and analysts increasingly express doubts in private that this could be realised with the November US presidential election less than two months away.
European and Ukrainian diplomats had hoped the ‘victory’ plan could be implemented before a new US president takes office in January.
Republican candidate Donald Trump, who is unlikely to meet with Zelenskyy while the Ukrainian leader is in the US, has so far dodged questions of whether he wants Ukraine to win the war against Russia.
His running mate, JD Vance, has publicly stated that he believes Ukraine would have to cede territories and forget about NATO membership to end the war.
A public spat over Zelenskyy’s visit to a Pennsylvania ammunition factory, which Republican US House Speaker Mike Johnson dismissed as electoral interference, has added to concerns that a Republican victory in November would mean a retreat of US support.
Senior Biden administration officials nonetheless insist that Ukraine can prevail against Russia but have increasingly toned down public statements that Kyiv could recover all its occupied territory.
“The challenge now is to make sure that Ukraine can be a strong independent country that stands up militarily, economically, democratically,” Blinken told ABC News.
At the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, Biden had called Western partners to sustain Ukraine’s defence. “We will not let up on our support for Ukraine until Ukraine wins a just and durable peace,” Biden said.
An increasing number of European diplomats are growing increasingly worried that the tide might be turning on both sides of the Atlantic.
“We expect that the talk of Ukraine having to enter peace negotiations will increase in the next few weeks,” one European diplomat told Euractiv.
But one narrative emerging is that giving Ukraine NATO membership could be offered as the only achievable option for Kyiv in a possible trade-off.
“It [NATO membership and a South Korea-style solution] would also be a good compromise for Trump if he wants to end this war swiftly,” a second European diplomat told Euractiv.
“[For Biden], a politician who has worked on foreign policy all his life, Ukraine is a question of legacy,” they added.
Pushback against other plans
Kyiv, over the past few months, has been pushing back against alternatives to its peace plan, Zelenskyy’s so-called ten-point Peace Formula, for which it has lobbied countries for buy-in.
A first global peace summit in Switzerland in June outlined a roadmap to peace. However, many key Global South countries – including Saudi Arabia, Mexico, India, Brazil, South Africa, and Indonesia – did not sign the final declaration. Russia was not present and said it wouldn’t join any future talks.
“The path to a just peace is the same – clear steps that everyone understands equally, and this is reflected in the Peace Formula,” Zelenskyy said in New York, adding he had extended an invitation to a follow-up meeting to “all principled nations… without exceptions”.
Addressing the UN Security Council on Tuesday (24 September), Zelenskyy urged leaders that Russia should be “forced” into peace based on UN charter rules.
“This war cannot simply fade away; it cannot end by talks; action is needed”, Zelenskyy said, calling on the remaining BRICS countries – Brazil, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates – to engage in peace efforts.
His plea came as several counter-proposals have emerged over the past year, including a China-Brazil joint six-point proposal released earlier this year in May.
The document, which states that there should be no “no expansion of the battlefield, no escalation of fighting and no provocation by any party”, has been highly criticised in Western diplomatic circles. It is felt the plan would potentially allow Moscow to continue hostilities, recognise Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian territories, and curtail Kyiv’s options for response.
A key demand of the proposal is “an international peace conference (…) recognised by both Russia and Ukraine.”
At the UN, Chinese diplomats this week have been trying to rally support for their peace proposal aimed at “preventing Russia from losing” the war, according to several Western diplomats that have been warned by Kyiv of Beijing’s diplomatic push.
“When the Brazil-Chinese duo tries to grow a choir of voices saying alternatives to a full and just peace, the question arises: what’s the true interest? Everyone must understand you won’t boost your power at the expense of Ukraine,” Zelenskyy pleaded with a packed UN General Assembly on Wednesday (25 September).
Their push is widely seen as contradictory with Western demands that any Ukraine peace negotiations require Kyiv’s full backing.
Ukrainian officials have been especially worried about the plans gaining traction with some in the Global South, for whom Western support for Ukraine has been marred by accusations of double standards over its response to Gaza.
An additional headache for Ukraine’s supporters is that Beijing’s renewed push comes as US officials have warned of China supporting Russia’s war efforts with military assistance.
[Edited by Owen Morgan]