After more than two years of being subjected to Russian military aggression, Ukraine is on the offensive. On Tuesday morning, at least 300 Ukrainian forces crossed the Russian border into Kursk. After attacking border patrols in Nikolayevo-Darina and Oleshnya, Ukrainian forces swiftly occupied 350 square kilometers of Russian territory and took dozens of Russians as POWs.
Ukraine’s offensive operations in Kursk show no sign of slowing down. Overnight, Ukrainian forces reportedly seized control of Sudzhna, reached the outskirts of Korenevo and advanced northward to Malaya Loknya. In less than forty-eight hours, Ukraine has captured more territory than during the entire ill-fated summer 2023 counter-offensive.
In keeping with operational secrecy protocols, Ukraine’s General Staff has not commented on the Kursk incursion. Notwithstanding Kyiv’s radio silence, it is abundantly clear that the Kursk offensive advances three key Ukrainian objectives.
The first is siphoning Russian forces from offensive operations in Donetsk. Over the past week, Russian forces have seized control of the villages of Progres, Yevgenivka and Niu-York. These advances are part of Russia’s strategy of consolidating control over Toretsk’s logistical centers and elevated terrain. Although Ukraine disputes Russia’s claimed seizure of Niu-York, Zelensky recently admitted that “It’s difficult all along the Eastern Front.” As the prospect of major gains in Kharkiv is remote, Russia could redirect even more conscripts to Donetsk in the weeks ahead. Ukraine’s Kursk offensive complicates that process.
The second is sowing discord within Russia. Since Russia regained marginal offensive momentum in early 2023, pro-Ukrainian Russian partisans have made periodic incursions into Russian territory. In May and June 2023, the Russian Volunteer Corps and Freedom of Russian Legion briefly occupied several border settlements in Belgorod. These cross-border operations extended to Kursk in March 2024. Much like the Kremlin UAV episode, these raids aimed to smash Russia’s increasingly fragile sense of security and show the Russian public that the war can come to them.
Ukraine’s current offensive in Kursk picks up from where these abortive raids left off. Although the Russian Defense Ministry swiftly claimed that it was destroying the 300 Ukrainian militants who crossed the border into Kursk, President Vladimir Putin was forced to call a security council meeting and publicly attack Ukraine’s “major provocation.” Russian pro-war Telegram channels have defied the Ministry of Defense’s calls for calm by highlighting the gravity of the situation and expressing frustration with the slow deployment of reinforcements to Kursk. After days of showcasing itself as the winner from the prisoner exchange deal, the Kremlin has been embarrassed.
The third is to advance a land swap deal during future talks. The Discord Leaks revealed that Zelensky pondered the occupation of Russian villages as a means of getting leverage over Moscow. Zelensky advisor Mykhailo Podolyak stated that Ukraine launched its Kursk offensive to bolster its future bargaining position. A Kharkiv-for-Kursk land swap is being mooted. While it is unclear whether Ukraine can hold villages in Kursk, the offensive has shown that breaching Russian territory is easier than destroying Russia’s fortifications in eastern Ukraine.
Despite their initial momentum, Ukraine’s advances in Kursk are likely to be short-lived. Western and domestic pressure will likely force Kyiv to change tack. The US is apparently mystified by Kyiv’s actions and European gas prices have risen to 2024 highs over Ukraine’s seizure of Sudzha gas export hub. Domestic criticisms of the diversion of precious manpower away from the core frontlines and civilian costs could convince Kyiv to stand down. The threat of more intensified Russian strikes on Sumy, which is adjacent to Kursk, forced 6,000 people to evacuate.
Nevertheless, the Kursk offensive shows that Russia has not learnt its lessons from the Wagner Group’s lightning seizure of Rostov during its June 2023 mutiny. Aside from predictable threats of annihilating Ukraine and using tactical nuclear weapons, Russia has not responded meaningfully to the Kursk offensive. With F-16 jets also arriving on the frontlines, Putin has plenty of reasons to worry.