Ukraine’s Mysterious New “Rocket Drone” Will Target Russian Air Force

As Russia ramps up its long-range drone and missile attacks, Ukraine is responding in kind. On Monday, President Zelensky announced the first combat use of a new Ukrainian long-range weapon called Palianytsia, which he described as a “rocket drone.”

Zelenksky said the new weapon will defend Ukraine by striking Russian aircraft on the ground before they can take off to launch missiles. This approach, termed “killing the archer not the arrows,” has been widely advocated in Ukraine and has scored some notable successes. Satellite images suggest the August 22^nd drone strike on Marinovka air base destroyed and damaged several bombers.

What do we know about Palianytsia? Is it a drone, a missile, or something else? And can it really tip the balance in killing the archer?

Bread Which Detects Enemies

Palianytsia or palyanytsia is a Ukrainian staple, a type of bread traditionally baked on a hearth rather than inside an oven. It symbolizes Ukrainian identity just as apple pie symbolizes America. Further, the word is difficult for non-natives to pronounce correctly, and in the early stages of the war it was used as a test to spot Russian saboteurs and infiltrators.

The name then emphasizes that this is a locally-made, 100% Ukrainian weapon, which, unlike the ATACMS, Storm Shadow and other missiles supplied by allies, can strike targets inside Russia without restrictions or asking permission.

The video which accompanied Zelensky’s announcement indicated that Palianytsia could reach more than 20 Russian air bases, implying a range of at least 370 miles. That is less than some of Ukraine’s existing long-range attack drones, some of which can strike at ranges of more than 1,000 miles.

Ukraine has a thriving defense sector of small companies making a bewildering variety of attack drones – analyst HI Sutton has documented some 24 types – but the new weapon appears to fit a particular niche.

Like A Cruise Missile But Different

The video notes that details like the size and speed of Palianytsia are classified, but says that its engine is a turbojet; the rocket/jet confusion is likely a matter of translation. There are, in fact rocket-powered drones though, like the latest version of Raytheon’s Coyote, a development of an earlier propeller-driven Coyote drone.

This has provoked all sorts of discussions about what counts as a missile. Ukraine’s Strategic Industries Minister Oleksandr Kamyshin told Kyiv Post that the new weapon is “both a drone and a missile. ” The problem is that there are no hard and fast definitions.

The boundaries between kamikaze or “one way attack” drones, armed decoys, loitering munitions, and cruise missiles are blurred and determined more history than specifications. Missile makers tend to classify their new products as cruise missiles, drone companies classify their products as drones, even if they are carrying out the same mission. The original German V-1 ‘Doodlebug’ flying bomb is classed by some as an early cruise missile and others as a proto-drone; at the time it was described as a ‘robot bomb’ or ‘air torpedo.’ Pick your terms.

Typically a drone can be controlled remotely, and does not need to have a target specified at launch, unlike a missile…but the latest Block V version of the Tomahawk cruise missile features “in-flight re-targeting” so it is arguably more of a drone. In fact Tomahawk has its roots in an “armed decoy” drone project rather than a missile so its identity has always been vague.

While there are plenty of jet-powered drones, such as the USAF’s airliner-sized RQ-4 Global Hawk, there are also jet-powered missiles. The jet engines fitted to missiles generally come in two flavors, so we have the turbojet, used to power the Storm Shadow and the turbofan, used in the Tomahawk. Loosely speaking the turbojet is simpler and has a better power-to-weight ratio, but worse fuel consumption. Comparing the engines in the two missiles names above, the turbojet produces about 50% more thrust but the turbofan is 50% more efficient.

Palianytsia is described as a drone, which seems reasonable given the number of cruise-missile-like attack drones now in use. Turbojet propulsion suggests it is optimized for high-speed strikes, which makes perfect sense given its specific role of hitting the archer.

Moving Targets

Many Ukrainian long-range strikes have stuck Russian oil and gas storage facilities and refineries, slowly but steadily burning down Russia’s oil industry. When attacking this type of target, a drone cruising at 100 mph is as good as a ballistic missile coming in at Mach 5: the target is static and cannot escape. Airbases are different because although there are some static features, such as fuel and ammunition storage, the aircraft themselves can be quickly relocated when necessary.

Reportedly, in the attack on Marinovka, most of the Russian aircraft flew away when the incoming drones were detected. Some were clearly unable to escape, due to maintenance or other issues, and the strike also destroyed hangars containing glide bombs and other munitions. But faster attack drones give less warning and might have caught many more aircraft still on the ground.

How much extra speed does a jet engine provide? The Shahed-136, the Iranian attack drone now produced in large numbers in Russia, and nicknamed ‘Moped’ due to the buzz from its engine, cruises at 115 mph. Iran also produces an upgraded version with a Czech-made turbojet engine, the Shahed-238, with a top speed of over 300 mph. Russia has access to the Shahed 238 technology but seems to have has stuck with the simpler, lower-cost 136 estimated to be around $30,000 a unit.

This issue of the ease and cost of production is crucial: Palyanytsia will only be effective if it can be turned out in sufficient numbers to stage mass attacks on every Russian airbase within range.

Scaling Up Production

Ukraine has previously deployed a handful of jet-powered attack drones, including Banshee targets supplied by the U.K. and turned into kamikazes. Others are clearly locally-made and seem to have been based on the Banshee, but only used in small numbers. The Palianytsia is likely a simpler design intended for use at scale,

“The number of rocket drones production will grow just like our long-range strike drones production did,” stated President Zelensky.

In July for the first time Ukraine launched more long-range attack drones than Russia. In August both sides have increased the tempo of drone launches, but Ukraine’s approach with multiple dispersed sites and designs optimized for mass production seems likely to win out.

Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s technology minister and drone supremo, told The Associated Press that the next step was to scale up Palianytsia production, showing that his focus is also on numbers rather than a handful of silver bullets.

This mirrors the situation with Ukraine’s small kamikaze drone boats in the Black Sea, and the tactical situation where Ukraine makes something over 3,000 FPV drones per day.

Individually they may be less effective than the expensive, exquisite military hardware favored by the West, but 30 Palianytsias may inflict more damage than a single million-dollar ATACMS. And while an ATACMS can be intercepted by a single missile, some drones in a mass attack are likely to get through. Of course ATACMS carries a much bigger payload, but, as we have seen at Marinovka and elsewhere, a 50-pound warhead is more than enough to destroy a parked aircraft or to ignite fuel storage.

Further evolutions of the jet-powered attack drone in Ukraine are likely. These may include turbofan versions with much greater range, interceptors able to target aircraft and helicopters, and more. This technology is still evolving and we do not yet know its full capabilities.

Fedorov describes Palianytsia as a “game changer,” a term which has been overused in this conflict. But if it can really neutralize Russian air power and stop the barrage of air-launched missiles and glide bombs, then he might just be right.