Ukraine’s military apparently launched a drone attack against a weapons depot in Russia’s Tver region Wednesday, causing a blast detectable from space.
The large-scale attack occurred near the village of Toropets, about 240 miles west of Moscow, according to Russian military bloggers. According to Russian state media, the attack was so intense the town of Toropets had to be evacuated.
The Tver attack follows another showy Ukrainian operation on Russian soil: August’s shock offensive into Russia’s Kursk region that has captured about 500 square miles of territory. Both are likely efforts by Ukraine to put itself in a better position to end Russia’s two-and-a-half-year war, which has devastated parts of the country — particularly in the south and east. While no peace talks are currently scheduled, Ukraine’s strategy could theoretically put it in a stronger negotiating position should talks happen, while also damaging Russia’s morale, ability to resupply, and its ability to launch devastating strikes within Ukraine.
Ukraine has long argued it could achieve more battlefield victories if the Biden administration would allow the military to use US-made long-range weapons to strike targets further in Russia.
The Tver strike and the Kursk incursion are likely meant to send a signal to allies that despite the war grinding on, Ukraine isn’t beaten, and that its allies aren’t backing a lost cause. That’s especially important in the leadup to the November US election, when a change in the White House could affect US political and material support for Ukraine, as former President Donald Trump and other Republican candidates have signaled a coolness to continued material support for the war effort.
Essentially, Ukraine’s message is: We’re doing well in the fight against Russia, and would do even better with more advanced weapons. However, despite Ukraine’s flashy successes since the Kursk offensive, it’s unclear — and possibly unlikely — that the Biden administration will give Ukraine both the materiel and the go-ahead to use it the way they want.
Ukraine’s trying to make the most of limited resources, but the US is in a tricky position
The target of the drone attack, according to Ukrainian sources cited in reporting, was a weapons depot that held conventional weapons like artillery shells and ballistic missiles. Those weapons, as well as the fuel tanks reportedly stored at the depot, could account for the explosive visuals being circulated on Telegram, a favorite platform for Russian military bloggers.
Experts note that though the Tver attack has attracted attention due to the size of the explosion, it’s not an isolated strike: “Ukrainian forces are conducting a consistent drone strike campaign into rear areas of Russia, targeting oil refineries and military airfields, military ammunition depots, and logistics facilities,” Riley Bailey, a senior researcher on Russia at the Institute for the Study of War, told Vox. “This one just seems to be very effective.”
The successful drone attacks, Bailey said, could disrupt Russian military logistics within Russia — as longer-range Ukrainian missile attacks did against Russian military installations within Ukraine in summer 2022. Disrupting logistics and resupply within Russia could, over time, hamper Russia’s ability to defend itself from attacks on its own soil; mount offensive campaigns within Ukraine; and force the military to rebuild and rearrange its supply capabilities.
“If there was this persistent threat of Ukrainian forces being able to achieve similar effects at several logistics facilities like this, then that would impose the same kind of operational pressure that Russian forces faced back in the summer of 2022,” Bailey said.
Ukraine has always been outgunned and outmanned against Russia; without continued US and NATO support, the Ukrainian military can’t continue to fight. But, Ukrainian leadership has long argued, they could do much more significant damage to Russian supplies and strategy if the US allowed them to use long-range weapons to hit targets deep into Russian territory.
The apparently successful Tver attack comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is set to present his victory plan to US President Joe Biden during a visit to the US later in September. Though details are scarce, that plan seems intent on using military force to push Russia into negotiations to end the war. A pillar of the plan likely depends on continued weapons support and looser permissions around how those weapons are used. The US has been hesitant to grant those permissions in order to not be seen as directly involved or escalating the conflict — and therefore inviting Russia to do the same.
However, fears about escalation haven’t played out on the battlefield, Amb. William Courtney, an adjunct senior fellow at the RAND Corporation, told Vox.
“Russian reaction, generally, has not been to escalate,” he said. “It’s been to adapt and try to counter.”
But even if the Biden administration allowed Ukraine to use longer-range missiles in its arsenal to attack Russian positions, it might not have a major impact, according to Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities.
“There are not that many Russian military targets in range of even the longer range missiles with additional permissions, and Russia can move valuable assets elsewhere, further reducing any losses from Ukrainian strikes,” she said. Plus, Ukraine wouldn’t be able to get enough of those weapons to mount the kind of sustained attacks that would make a long-term difference in the war.
Still, Ukraine appears to be pressing ahead with its strategy and hoping that the Biden administration gets on board with the plan for victory — and that even if long-range capabilities aren’t the key to winning the war, they’ll at least make Russia’s war increasingly difficult and costly to execute.