Key developments on Sept. 30:
- Russia aims to draft 133,000 Russians during new round of fall conscription
- Russia intensifies attacks on recaptured Vovchansk plant, uses ‘maximum range of weapons,’ military says
- Commander of Ukraine’s 72nd Brigade transferred amid battle for Vuhledar
- Some details of Ukraine’s victory plan will remain secret, Yermak says
- Hours of explosions heard in Kyiv as capital fends off waves of Russian attack drones
Russia is planning to draft 133,000 Russians between October and January, according to a decree signed by President Vladimir Putin on Sept. 30.
Men aged from 18 to 30 will be drafted as part of the regularly occurring fall conscription campaign.
The decree applies to Russians who are not in the reserve and are subject to military service. Those soldiers whose service has already expired are to be dismissed.
The fall 2023 conscription included the illegally annexed areas of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
The U.K. Defense Ministry said in March that Russia is likely recruiting around 30,000 people a month to help bolster its war effort.
Ukraine also adopted a law on mobilization in April as part of an effort to replenish the ranks of the Armed Forces. The need to increase the number of troops persists as Russia continues to advance in Donetsk Oblast and Ukraine after opened a new front in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.
Recent legislation reforms pertaining to mobilization also included a law lowering the minimum age of compulsory military service from 27 to 25.
After the law came into force in Ukraine on May 18, military-aged men were given 60 days to update their personal data so that the state could locate them.
Between May 18 and the mid-July deadline, over 4.6 million military-aged men had done so, the country’s Defense Ministry said.
Putin delays new mobilization, despite Kursk incursion exposing troop shortages
Amid speculation that the Kremlin is considering a new mobilization of conscripts, some potential draftees say they are not enthusiastic about defending Russian territory just over a month after the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast. “I won’t go (to the front). I swore an oath to the Constituti…
Russia intensifies attacks on recaptured Vovchansk plant, uses 'maximum range of weapons,' military says
Russian troops are using “the maximum range of weapons” to attack the recently recaptured aggregate plant in the town of Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast, Kharkiv Group of Forces spokesperson Vitalii Sarantsev said on Sept. 30.
Describing the situation as “difficult,” Sarantsev said Russian forces were continuously assaulting in the Kharkiv sector, and had made the Vovchansk plant its “number one goal.”
Russian troops had been in control of the facility for several months before it was recaptured by Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) special forces on Sept. 24, HUR previously reported.
“(The plant) is not a tactical target as such for (Russia). But at the same time, the loss of this facility was a very powerful blow to its image,” the spokesperson said.
Speaking on national television, Sarantsev said that Russian forces are carrying out attacks against the plant with guided aerial bombs and “Solntsepek” multiple rocket launchers.
“In other words, (Russia) is following its standard practice of destroying what it could not capture,” he added.
Ukrainian forces captured around 20 Russian soldiers and killed “several dozen” others during an operation to recapture an aggregate plant in the town of Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast, a member of Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) claimed last week.
The Kyiv Independent could not verify these reports.
Vovchansk is an embattled town some 60 kilometers (37 miles) northeast of Kharkiv that has seen heavy battles since Russia launched a new offensive in the area in May.
While initially gaining ground, the Russian offensive in northern Kharkiv Oblast has quickly bogged down, with Russian troops reportedly suffering heavy losses.
The intensity of fighting has decreased somewhat compared to other sectors in Ukraine’s east near Pokrovsk, Vuhledar, and Toretsk.
Russia’s move on Kharkiv has bogged down. But was it a failure?
In the first half of May, Russia opened a new front to its war against Ukraine in dramatic fashion. The two-pronged offensive on Kharkiv Oblast unfolded on the back of some of the most difficult months for Ukrainian forces, overstretched and depleted after a brutal winter and early spring campaign
Commander of Ukraine's 72nd Brigade transferred amid battle for Vuhledar
Colonel Ivan Vinnik, commander of Ukraine’s 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade currently defending the embattled town of Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast, has been transferred, the brigade confirmed on Sept. 29.
According to Operational Command “North,” Vinnik was transferred “for the purpose of promotion and to transfer combat experience.”
It was not announced who would replace him.
Vinnik was appointed commander of the 72nd Brigade in August 2022. Under his command, the brigade has defended Vuhledar for more than two years. Russian forces have been trying to capture the town since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.
“Since the summer of 2022 till today, I have had a long and difficult journey. But it was not difficult, because I did not overcome it alone. I had a loyal and motivated team by my side,” Vinnik said in a post on Facebook.
“I thank each and every one of you for your patience, willpower and strength. Thank you for listening, hearing, talking and offering suggestions. Thank you for our joint struggle.
“Thank you for being by my side. I really appreciate it! I am honoured to be a part of the Black Cossacks, and the bond that has been formed between us will remain forever.”
The reshuffle comes at a time when fierce fighting for Vuhledar is still ongoing. The front-line town lies about 50 kilometers (30 miles) southwest of occupied Donetsk and roughly 40 kilometers (25 miles) east of the administrative border with Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Russian troops had not reached the outskirts of Vuhledar as of Sept. 25, Donetsk Oblast Governor Vadym Filashkin. A day later, the brigade refuted reports that it was retreating from the town and released a video from the town.
The crowd-sourced monitoring website DeepState claimed on Sept. 29 that Russian troops trying to gain a foothold in high-rise buildings on the outskirts of Vuhledar. The Kyiv Independent could not verify these reports.
“The loss of Vuhledar would be not only a morale blow for Ukraine since this city has resisted plenty of assaults since 2022, but also a very serious development that can potentially threaten the security of the entire southwestern portion of Donetsk Oblast not yet occupied, along with the threat to Pokrovsk’s southern flank,” Federico Borsari, a fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told the Kyiv Independent earlier this month.
What the fall of Vuhledar would mean for Russia’s war in Ukraine
The long-embattled town of Vuhledar, key to Ukrainian defenses in the southeastern part of Donetsk Oblast, is under threat of encirclement and is being “razed to the ground,” according to reports on Sept. 24. Located 50 kilometers south of Pokrovsk, the strategic roadway junction, Vuhledar is often…
Some details of Ukraine's victory plan will remain secret, Yermak says
President Volodymyr Zelensky’s victory plan will be made public but some parts will remain secret, the head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak said on Sept. 29.
Zelensky presented the five-point victory plan to his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden at the White House on Sept. 26. He also discussed it with presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris and members of Congress.
The plan includes military and diplomatic components, including Ukraine’s invitation to join NATO, but the full details of the peace framework have not yet been publicized. The goal of the plan is to strengthen Ukraine’s future negotiating position and push Russia to make a just peace, Kyiv has said.
Speaking on national TV, Yermak said the plan will be presented to Ukrainians without some “sensitive” details to prevent information from leaking to Russia.
“Everything that becomes public is heard not only in our country, but also by the enemy. That is why some details of this plan are classified. But it is important to see the implementation of this plan on enemy territory,” he added.
While Zelensky was in the U.S. last week, reports emerged that the White House was concerned the plan lacks a clear strategy to win against Russia.
Following the visit to the U.S., presidential spokesperson Serhii Nykyforov said that Washington took the plan “constructively.”
What we know about the ‘victory plan’ Zelensky presented to Biden
Though full details have not been revealed yet, the plan has been presented by Zelensky as a bit to force Russia into peace talks and a fair resolution
Hours of explosions heard in Kyiv as capital fends off waves of Russian attack drones
Kyiv was targeted by several waves of Russian attack drones overnight, city authorities said on Sept. 30.
Air raid sirens sounded in the capital just after 1 a.m., with the all clear not being given until just after 6 a.m.
As air defenses engaged the drones, Kyiv Independent correspondents heard multiple explosions, anti-aircraft fire, and the sound of unmanned aerial vehicles flying overhead in at least one district of the city.
Shortly before 5 a.m., Kyiv Mayor Vitalii Klitschko said several drones were “over and near the capital,” adding: “Stay in shelters!”
No damage or casualties were reported, though Klitschko said the wreckage of one drone was found near a residential building in Kyiv’s Obolon district.
“All Russian attack drones that threatened Kyiv were neutralized,” Serhii Popko, head of the Kyiv City Military Administration, said in a post on Telegram, adding several waves had attacked the city from different directions.
Ukraine’s Air Force later said Russian forces had launched 73 Shahed-type drones against cities across Ukraine overnight, 67 of which were intercepted.
It did not specify how many had attacked Kyiv.
Russian drone attacks on Kyiv have stepped up in recent weeks — overnight on Sept. 26, more than 15 drones were spotted near the capital, with around 10 of them downed by air defenses, the Kyiv City Military Administration said.
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