Hopefully we will be able to upset Russia‘s plans by inflicting a lot of damage on troop concentrations and arms depots”.
That is the reaction of a Ukrainian colonel – with close links to the army’s top brass – to news that Joe Biden had lifted the restriction on US-supplied long-range missiles being used to target Vladimir Putin’s forces deep inside Russia after months of pleas from Kyiv. A few hours later, on the 1,000th day of the invasion, Moscow claimed the first use of the US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) ballistic missiles on the Bryansk region of Russia, about 80 miles from the Ukraine border. The missiles have a full range of around 190 miles.
Ukraine’s General Staff of the armed forces said before the statement from Russia’s Foreign Ministry that the Ukrainian army carried out a strike on the arsenal of the 1046th Logistics Support Centre in the area of Karachev in Bryansk region of Russia. The General Staff said that multiple explosions and detonationd were heard in the targeted area, without saying what weapons had been used.
“The destruction of ammunition depots for the Russian occupying forces, aimed at ending Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine, will continue,” the statement said. Ukrainian media, including RBC-Ukraine, cited a source saying: “Indeed, for the first time, we used ATACMS to strike Russian territory. The strike was carried out against a facility in the Bryansk region, and it was successfully hit”. Moscow claimed that the missiles were shot out of the sky, or damaged, with falling debris causing a fire.
“It’s better late than never and a positive development,” the Ukrainian colonel told The Independent.
“But a key issue is how many ATACMS will the US provide. The US can [also] programme the range the missiles can fly – so another important step is what distance they will allow the missiles to strike.”
There were reports on Sunday that Initially permission for their use is believed to be limited to the Russian region of Kursk, next to Bryansk, where Ukrainian forces established a foothold after a surprise assault in August.
According to intelligence reports by Kyiv and its Western allies, Russia is preparing to launch a large offensive in an attempt to eject the Ukrainian army from Kursk.
Kyiv wants to use long-range missiles to counter an anticipated attack by tens of thousands of Russian forces in Kursk, bolstered by an estimated 10,000 North Korean troops – a number which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said could reach 100,000 – to retake the territory captured by Ukraine.
“We will be able to disrupt Russia’s expected push in Kursk where we have seen their forces gathering 50,0000 plus troops,” the colonel said about using the US-supplied missiles inside Russia.
The Ukrainians also hope that Biden’s move will open the way to lifting all restrictions on how Kyiv can use Western-provided weapons including the Anglo-French Storm Shadows that have also been subject to restrictions. British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are both keen to allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadow (called Scalp by France) inside Russia, but given the missiles use US guidance systems, Washington will also need to agree to that.
“We are waiting to see what Britain and France do with permission for us to use Storm Shadow inside Russia,” said The Independent‘s source. “We know they want us to be able to use their missiles for long-range strikes into Russia and hope that America will give us the necessary permission.”
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the US is “adding fuel to the fire” and reiterated Russian President Putin’s claims from September that Ukrainian strikes against Russia using Western-provided weapons would represent an escalation and directly involve Western countries in the war. On Tuesday, Putin lowered the threshold for a nuclear strike in response to a broader range of conventional attacks. In a clear reference to Ukraine and the United States, the doctrine said any attack by a non-nuclear power supported by a nuclear power would be considered a joint attack. Any attack by one member of a military bloc would be considered an attack by the entire alliance, it said.
Russia has for months been pressing Ukrainian troops hard all along the 600-mile front lines in Ukraine and in the Russian territory Kyiv occupied in the Kursk area. Moscow, despite losing, by Ukrainian estimates, an average of some 1,200 daily dead and wounded, has been making incremental advances.
The colonel and other sources told The Independent that despite the staggering casualties, Putin will likely continue, and perhaps even intensify, the attacks up to the inauguration of Donald Trump in January, because Moscow perceives that would give it more leverage in any peace negotiations initiated by the incoming US president.
Over the weekend, Russia launched some of its largest air raids since its invasion began in February 2022, using drones, missiles and glide bombs against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, leaving many civilians dead.
Trump said many times during his election campaign that, as president, he would end the conflict within a day. But he has not explained how he would achieve that.
America is Ukraine’s most important supplier of weapons and ammunition and many in Kyiv and its allies fear Trump would try to force Ukraine into a disadvantageous ceasefire – where it would have to cede territory occupied by Russia – by threatening to cut off supplies to Ukraine.
Moves to lift restrictions on Ukraine have been criticised by some in Trump’s camp who say it will make efforts to end the war more difficult and put the world on the path to global war..
The man Trump wants as his national security adviser, Republican Congressman Mike Walz called it “another step up the escalation ladder.”
It is unknown how many ATACMS Ukraine possesses. They are launched using platforms like the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). But it is unlikely that Kyiv’s stock of the expensive missiles is plentiful.
The colonel said that Kyiv knows that it cannot rely indefinitely on others for its supplies, especially when there is uncertainty over Trump’s intentions, and that Ukraine is working rapidly to develop its own long-range missiles that would put Moscow within range.