Joe Biden has finally relented in allowing Ukraine to use US-supplied long-range missiles to strike inside Russia – and it would be a surprise if the UK did not follow suit.
For months, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been pleading with his US counterpart and other Western leaders to help relieve the pressure his troops are facing on the frontline, as well as trying to slow the relentless aerial bombardment of Ukrainian cities that Russia is launching. As Russia’s invasion ticks into its 1,000th day, Biden has given the green light.
Given the relative limited supplies that Ukraine will have of both the US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) ballistic missiles and the UK Storm Shadow missiles, this will not be a war-winning development for Kyiv, but that should not diminish what a policy shift this is the White House. Although the symbolic significance may
According to US officials, the first time the American weapons will be used inside Russia will likely be against Russian and North Korean troops seeking to push back Ukrainian troops from the Russian border region of Kursk – where Kyiv’s forces launched a daring assault in August that claimed a swathe of territory. Kyiv has warned that tens of thousands of Russian troops, bolstered by thousands of North Korean soldiers as part of growing cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang that also includes masses of artillery shells being sent to Russia.
That will be the short-term military gain, with hope that long-range strikes will help slow supplies to those troops and give Ukrainian a chance of holding onto the territory as long as they can, while ensuring that Russia can’t launch its own assaults from that area of the border. More broadly, the aim will be to hit weapons stores housing the glide bombs that have done significant damage to Ukrainian positions. Anything that will force Moscow into serious thinking about how it has to deploy its weapons or cost them time and money in destroying stocks, will be welcomed by Zelensky.
Kyiv has also been desperate for long range missiles to strike airfields deep inside Russia that have been used as launchpads for the intensive aerial bombardment of Ukraine. This includes stockpiles of missiles, drones and other ammunition, as well as the planes used in those strikes. Russia has spent the last two winters hitting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, leading to rolling blackouts that are aimed at sucking away the morale of the Ukrainian people during the coldest months of the year. That is on top of the fear of such missiles destroying homes, or killing and wounding residents.
The impact of such Ukrainian retaliation has been blunted by the months it has taken for Biden to come to this decision. While the missiles will have a range of 150 miles or so, a significant improvement on the missiles Ukraine is currently using, Moscow has had plenty of time to shift key assets out of range of both the ATACMS and the Storm Shadows. Zeensky himself has acknowledged that the very public way this decision has been discussed and announced will not help that. In the wake of Biden’s decision being reported, if not officially confirmed yet by the White House: “Such things are not announced… Missiles will speak for themselves.”
However, Zelsnky knows how important morale is during an invasion that is now well into its third year. Moves such as this give Ukrainians something to cheer for and provides a boost to beleaguered forces that have faced wave after wave of Russian attacks across much of the massive 600-mile frontline, with Moscow’s forces making slow but consistent advances in regions like eastern Donetsk.
In a similar vein, the political impact of Biden’s decision has the potential to be the most important. It signals that Washington is not afraid to face up to Russian warnings of dire consequences for letting long-range strikes happen. Pro-war Russian MPs have been quick to suggest the US is pushing the West towards a world war, but the Kremlin has been a little more circumspect, accusing the US of pouring “fuel on the fire” of the war, but initially steering clear of talk of instant retribution. Although the key time will be how Vladimir Putin responds to the deaths of Russian forces in an ATACM strike.
Biden will also be hoping to put Donald Trump, the US president-elect, in a position where he will find it tough to revoke the decision. If Ukraine can make full use of the missiles to put themselves in a better position before Trump re-enters the White House, it may make the most transactional of leaders more disposed to fight for Kyiv’s position. For Trump, it is always about the “win” that makes him look best, particularly if – as he has claimed – he is looking to end the war in Ukraine quickly. The fact that Trump allies have also already started to complain about Biden’s decision pushing the US and the world closer to a wider war will not have filled Kyiv with confidence.
That is among the many reasons that Zelensky and Ukraine will want to ensure the new freedoms over the long-range strikes are used as effectively as possible as swiftly as they can.