UK employment is 400,000 higher than thought – but workers are less productive – as under-fire stats body admits figures have been way out since Covid

An extra 400,000 people are thought to be in jobs in the UK after the under-fire statistics body’s latest revisions.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has overhauled estimates for the labour force after immigration drove a surge in population since mid-2022. 

Numbers aged 16 to 64 are believed to have been 484,000 higher in April to June this year than previously projected. 

As a result employment has been shifted upwards by 402,000, unemployment by 30,000 and economically inactivity 60,000.

The employment rate is estimated to be 0.1 percentage points higher, while inactivity is down 0.1 percentage points.

But although the total hours worked is now more than previously thought, each employee is less productive than the old figures showed.  

The previously published output per worker for April to June 2024 was up 0.9 per cent on the same period last year. But that has now been downgraded to 0.3 per cent.

‘The revisions in productivity since the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic suggest that the underlying weakness in UK productivity growth remains,’ the ONS said.

The employment rate is estimated to be 0.1 percentage points higher, while inactivity is down 0.1 percentage points

The statistics body – where workers have been taking industrial action to keep working from home five days a week – has been slammed by the Bank of England for the issues with its data.

Pressure ramped up after huge revisions to net migration stats were made last week.

Official figures showed net inflows were 906,000 in the year to June 2023 – 166,000 above the initial estimate of 740,000.

A similar revision was made for net migration in the year to December 2023, which was initially believed to be 685,000 and is now put at 866,000, an increase of 181,000. 

Numbers aged 16 to 64 are believed to have been 484,000 higher in April to June this year than previously projected

Although the total hours worked is now more than previously thought, each employee is less productive than the old figures showed

Arrivals in the 12 months to June this year were 728,000 higher than those leaving the country. In itself that was almost as much as the previous long-term immigration record. 

The ONS attributed the radical shift to more complete data and improvements in how it estimates the behaviour of people arriving in the UK from outside the EU.

The stats body said today: ‘The Labour Force Survey (LFS) remains the lead source of labour market outputs and as such we are continuing to address quality issues through targeting improvements across data collection, methodology and communication about how LFS data should currently be used. 

‘The design of the survey and complexity of the issues mean that it will take time for the impact of any improvements to be fully realised.’