UK economy ekes out 0.1% growth in the third quarter, below expectations

The U.K. economy grew less than expected in the third quarter of the year, showing only marginal growth following a rebound at the start of the year, initial figures showed Friday.

Gross domestic product came in at 0.1% in the three months to September compared to the previous quarter. That’s below the 0.2% growth expected by economists polled by Reuters and follows an expansion of 0.5% in the second quarter of the year.

U.K.’s dominant services sector also grew just 0.1% on the quarter, the Office for National Statistics said. Construction rose by 0.8%, while production slipped 0.2% in the month.

It comes after inflation in the U.K. fell sharply to 1.7% in September, dipping below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time since April 2021. The fall in inflation helped pave the way for the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, bringing its key rate to 4.75%.

The Bank of England said last week it expects the Labour Government’s tax-raising budget to boost GDP by 0.75 percentage points in a year’s time. Policymakers also noted that the government’s fiscal plan had led to an increase in their inflation forecasts.

U.K. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said Friday she was “not satisfied” with the numbers.

“At my Budget, I took the difficult choices to fix the foundations and stabilise our public finances. Now we are going to deliver growth through investment and reform to create more jobs and more money in people’s pockets, get the NHS back on its feet, rebuild Britain and secure our borders in a decade of national renewal,” she said in a release.

A rate cut at the BOE’s next meeting in December now looks “improbable,” according to Suren Thiru, economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales. He said inflation risks and growing global headwinds will likely prevent policymakers from pursuing back-to-back rate cuts.

“These figures suggest that the economy went off the boil even before the budget, as weaker business and consumer confidence helped weaken output across the third quarter, particularly in September,” Thiru said in emailed comments.

The outcome of the recent U.S. election has fostered much uncertainty about the global economic impact of another term from President-elect Donald Trump. While Trump’s proposed tariffs are expected to be widely inflationary and hit the European economy hard, some analysts have said such measures could provide opportunities for the British economy.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gave little away last week on the bank’s views of Trump’s tariff agenda, but he did reference risks around global fragmentation.

“Let’s wait and see where things get to. I’m not going to prejudge what might happen, what might not happen,” he told reporters during a press briefing.

The British pound ticked slightly higher by 0.1% against the U.S. dollar at 7:33 a.m. in London. It dipped 0.15% against the euro following Friday’s GDP release.