UFC 302 Gambling Preview: Can Dustin Poirier pull off the upset against Islam Makhachev?

UFC 302 takes place this Saturday in Newark, N.J., headlined by a lightweight title fight between Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier. It’s Makhachev’s chance to tie the record for consecutive lightweight title defenses, while Poirier has one final opportunity to finish his story and claim undisputed UFC gold. Who will win and what are the other best bets available this weekend? Let’s dive in.

As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Straight Bets

Paulo Costa (+215)

In the co-main event, Costa takes on former middleweight champion Sean Strickland, and “Borrachinha” has a very good chance to pull off the upset. Strickland has become an elite middleweight over the past few years, even dominating Israel Adesanya to claim the belt, but he has a few major flaws, and the biggest one is style. Strickland has a pressuring, defense-first style that prioritizes jabs, and while it’s very effective, it makes fights appear closer than they maybe should be. Both Dricus du Plessis and Jared Cannonier won decisions over Strickland by simply punching much harder than he does, and swaying the judges with the impact of their blows. Costa is cut from that same cloth, and he’ll be in there throwing as much as Strickland does but with much more power behind each shot. I view this as a coin flip fight, so there’s plenty of value on Costa at these odds.

Joe Solecki (+390)

Another value play, Solecki takes on top-15 lightweight Grant Dawson in an undercard matchup, and I think this line is WAY off. Dawson is the second-biggest favorite on the card behind only Makhachev, and the truth is, Dawson doesn’t deserve to be. Yes, he’s a great grappler, but Solecki is no slouch on the floor either, and Dawson has a bit of a tendency towards having closer fights than you would imagine. Dawson is the better wrestler and that probably does carry the day here, but Solecki is fighting in his home state and has proven to be a very tough out for most. These odds make him a value.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Prop Bets

Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier OVER 2.5 Rounds (+140)

I did a full breakdown of this fight already, but the short version is this: This is a bad stylistic matchup for Poirier, but not as bad as Khabib Nurmagomedov was. Makhachev can take Poirier down almost at will, and I suspect he won’t be goaded into striking with “The Diamond,” but he’s not the same threat from the top as Khabib was. Yes, Makhachev is exceptional from top, but he’s much more of a pressure and control grappler than Khabib, who would rain hellfire on opponents and then move back to position if they scrambled out. Makhachev does not like to give up position, and so there’s a high likelihood that though he gets Poirier down repeatedly, he doesn’t tire Poirier out and make him desperate like Khabib did. That leads to a longer fight where Makhachev is dominant but not threatening a finish.

I think this fight makes it into the championship rounds and possibly even goes to the cards. Love this bet.

Jailton Almeida vs. Alexander Romanov OVER 1.5 Rounds (-120)

Fresh off his loss to Curtis Blaydes, Almeida looks to rebound against fellow grappler Romanov, and he has a pretty good chance to do so. Almeida took Blaydes down almost at will, and Blaydes is a substantially better wrestler than Romanov, so I suspect Almeida will have his way there yet again. Still, Romanov is a big man and an accomplished grappler in his own right, so I think he’ll be able to defend himself well enough. This fight has a fair chance at going the distance given the style matchup, so I like over 1.5 rounds at these odds.

Photo by Pedro Vilela/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Parlay of the Week

There are few things I love more in this world than a gimmick parlay, and Saturday provides a perfect opportunity for one as there are two men competing with the last name Almeida, and both of them are fighting Romans.

Jailton Almeida (-325)

As mentioned above, I think this fight is going long and that should favor Almeida. Romanov has never had great cardio, and so barring something strange happening early, Almeida should have a straightforward time of things on Saturday.

Cesar Almeida (-118)

A former GLORY kickboxer who famously has a win over Alex Pereira, Almeida is being thrown straight into the deep end of 185 pounds against Roman Kopylov after making a successful UFC debut. This is Pereira-esque matchmaking as Kopylov almost never shoots for takedowns, meaning the kickboxer should get to do his thing. I say “should” because Kopylov is a combat sambo world champion and thus could take the Waldo Cortes-Acosta method of least resistance, but I’m hoping he doesn’t, and that once again, GLORY kickboxing proves to be among the strongest bases for MMA.

Parlay these two bets together for +141 odds.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Dustin Poirier to Win by Submission (+2200)

Is Poirier going to win on Saturday? No. If he somehow does, could it possibly be by submission? Zero percent chance. So then isn’t this an objectively bad bet? Only if you live your life by math.

Me? I live by vibes. We’re not betting to pay the rent here, gambling is supposed to be fun. And what outcome could possible be more fun than having money down on Dustin Poirier to finally win the lightweight title and do so by jumping the gilly? I know where I want my money on Saturday. What about you? Be on the right side of history.

Paulo Costa to Win by Split of Majority Decision (+2200)

If you read the breakdown up above, I think this is a razor close fight where Strickland will land “better” but Costa will look more impressive, even if some of those shots are getting blocked. Historically, that’s led to split decisions losses for Strickland. At these odds, I’ll take a flyer on it happening again.

Wrap Up

Been a while since we’ve done one of these what with the off week, but last time out we managed to cash some bets. Let’s hope we do the same this Saturday.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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