The two men billed as Donald Trump’s likely picks for secretary of state and national security advisor signal a much harder line on China and Iran under the new administration as well as a shift away from US troops, weapons and cash underpinning European security.
Marco Rubio, the senator of Florida, is widely tipped in US media reports as the president-elect’s choice for his top diplomat, though this is not yet confirmed.
It is also being reported that Michael Waltz, a Republican congressman and former special forces soldier, will be Mr Trump’s new top security adviser.
Both men are seen as foreign policy hawks who regard Beijing as the biggest threat to the United States and would like to see more US resources redirected from Europe to the Asia-Pacific.
They believe that Beijing’s power and influence has only grown under Joe Biden and will likely view all foreign policy decisions through the lens of what it might mean for China.
Neither of the men support an open-ended commitment by Washington to provide weapons and money to Ukraine to fight Russia’s war, favouring instead a deal with Vladimir Putin.
Mr Rubio has made clear he is “not on Russia’s side”.
But he told NBC in September: “Unfortunately the reality of it is that the way the war in Ukraine is going to end is with a negotiated settlement.”
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Interestingly – especially if he is confirmed as the next national security adviser – Mr Waltz co-wrote an article in The Economist that laid out his view of how this could be done: either by offering to ease sanctions or threatening greater assistance to Kyiv.
“America can use economic leverage, including lifting the pause on exports of liquefied natural gas and cracking down on Russia’s illicit oil sales, to bring Mr Putin to the table,” he wrote in the 2 November piece, co-authored with Matthew Kroenig, a former Pentagon strategist.
“If he refuses to talk, Washington can, as Mr Trump argued, provide more weapons to Ukraine with fewer restrictions on their use. Faced with this pressure, Mr Putin will probably take the opportunity to wind the conflict down.”
Mr Waltz, a decorated Green Beret who served multiple tours in Afghanistan, does not want Moscow to be able to declare its actions in Ukraine a victory.
Instead, he wrote that requiring Mr Putin to accept a deal whereby Ukraine remains an independent state, closely tied to the West “would be a strategic defeat for the Russian leader and seen as such in Beijing”.
Representative Mike Waltz at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. Pic: Reuters
Germany, France UK ‘more than capable’ without US
Should he become secretary of state, Mr Rubio would echo Mr Trump’s frustration at the reliance of European NATO allies on the United States to protect them.
“In the 21st century, Europe must take the lead in Europe. Germany, France, and the United Kingdom are more than capable of managing their relationship with the nuclear-armed belligerent to their east,” he wrote in the American Conservative last year, as reported by the Washington Post.
“But they’ll never take ownership so long as they can rely on America. If this were a welfare policy debate, conservatives would be calling for work requirements.”
The senator, who serves as vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, will take a very hard line on Iran – much more so than Anthony Blinken, the outgoing secretary of state.
Mr Rubio has been hugely supportive of the Israeli government’s war against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon – two groups that are closely aligned with Tehran.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will surely be hoping a second Trump White House will grant him even freer reign to “finish the job” and also potentially to strike Iran once again, maybe this time even to go after Iranian nuclear sites.