Tuesday briefing: Will a shift in Biden’s missile policy change the war in Ukraine?

Good morning.

The US president, Joe Biden, has lifted the longstanding ban on Ukraine using American-made long-range missiles to fire into Russian territory. The Biden administration secretly first sent the army tactical missile systems, or Atacms, to Ukraine earlier this year under the stipulation that Ukraine would not use it inside Russia. That has now changed, and the US has given Kyiv the green light after reports emerged that 10,000 North Korean troops were in Ukraine.

It is a significant policy change and comes at a critical point in the war: the authorisation has been given under the condition that the weapons will be used only in the Kursk region of Russia, which is partly occupied by Ukraine, and where Russia is expected to launch a counteroffensive. Ukraine partly captured Kursk in a surprise attack in August. It was a humiliating setback for Russia, which is deploying 50,000 troops to take it back.

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has been urging his western allies to allow Kyiv to use long-range weapons against targets inside Russia to regain momentum, but the Biden administration has dragged its feet over concerns it could escalate the conflict into “world war three”. The UK appears prepared to followed Washington’s lead, reportedly by allowing Ukraine to use long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles on Russian targets.

For today’s newsletter, I spoke with the Guardian’s defence and security editor, Dan Sabbagh, about what this shift tells us about the trajectory of the war in Ukraine. That’s right after the headlines.

Five big stories

1. Hong Kong | 47 of Hong Kong’s most prominent pro-democracy figures have been jailed – one for 10 years – in the territory’s largest national security trial, following a prosecution that has been widely criticised as politically motivated and controlled by China’s Communist party government.

2. Poverty | More than one in three children and a quarter of adults are living in poverty in the UK as deprivation levels rise to the highest in the 21st century, according to a landmark report.

3. Cop29 | Raising money needed to tackle the climate crisis need not be a burden on overstretched government budgets, leading economists have said. The sums needed – approximately $1tn a year by 2030 – are achievable without disruption to the global economy, and would help to generate greener economic growth for the future.

4. Labour | A government policy to create 100,000 new nursery places using spare capacity in English primary schools is “unlikely to work” because of a geographical mismatch between capacity and demand, according to research by Frontier Economics, one of the largest economic consultancies in Europe.

5. Environment | More than 51 million chickens are being industrially farmed in the river valleys of the Severn and Wye – the equivalent of 79 chickens for every person in the region, according to new figures. The exponential rise in large intensive poultry units (IPUs) in the valleys is a key driver of river pollution. Chicken dropping contains more phosphates – which starve fish and river plants of oxygen – than any other animal manure.

In depth: ‘No single weapon type is decisive in a complex war like this’

The news comes after the US president-elect, Donald Trump, reportedly spoke with Vladimir Putin and told him not to escalate the war in Ukraine. This did little, however, to convince Moscow, which recently launched a massive country-wide missile and drone attack against Ukraine’s infrastructure. It was the largest attack in months and is part of Russia’s attempt to devastate Ukraine’s capacity to generate energy during winter.

Why now?

Up until now, the US had hesitated to provide Ukraine with a long-range missile strike capability into Russia, citing concerns about escalation. Recent developments have shifted this position. White Housing briefings point in particular to the appearance of North Korean ground forces in Ukraine. While initial reports suggested North Korean troops might be deployed to support Russia, scepticism arose due to its military’s lack of recent combat experience, having not sent troops into battle since 1953.

These doubts were dispelled recently when Kyiv confirmed that North Korean soldiers had already engaged in combat against Ukrainian forces in Kursk. Unnamed sources estimated that North Korea could mobilise approximately 100,000 troops, Bloomberg reported. Despite the lack of battlefield training, one expert notes that these soldiers have been rigorously prepared to endure extreme physical and psychological challenges. And regardless, Dan says, “these extra numbers might really help tip the balance at a time when Ukraine and Russia are suffering from war exhaustion”.

Will it make a difference?

It’s a major policy shift: the Biden administration is crossing a line it wasn’t prepared to cross before. The long-range missiles fire at greater depth than normal and would allow Kyiv to strike hundreds of targets deep inside Russian territory, Dan tells me. This could include staging points, military bases, logistics hubs, barracks and ammunition warehouses.

But militarily, it will not change the trajectory of the war, Dan says. “Each time these discussions about an individual weapon type are considered, freighted with great significance, the reality has been they’ve only made an incremental difference in the battlefield. From Ukraine’s perspective, it is better to have them than not, but ultimately, no single weapon type is decisive in a complex war like this.” There also are not many of these long-range missiles available.

Russia has been closely monitoring the debates in Washington and is likely prepared to adapt its operational strategies. “Each of these weapons comes along months, maybe years, after Ukrainians asked for them. It’s quite an agonising process,” Dan says.

“They are clearly military useful, they have a psychological and deterrent effect but in terms of an actual destructive effect, not so much.”

Russia’s response

The Kremlin has issued a stark warning, threatening a “swift response” that could escalate tensions between the US and Russia. Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters yesterday: “It is clear that the outgoing administration in Washington intends to take steps to continue to add fuel to the fire and to further inflame tensions around this conflict.” Peskov confirmed that the words of Putin in September still stand, when the Russian president said allowing Kyiv to use longer-range weapons against targets inside Russia would mean Nato would be directly “at war” with Moscow.

“I think they’ll try and adopt some scary rhetoric to try and affect US public opinion,” Dan says. “Especially when Trump is incoming and there’s more scepticism in the US about American military aid to Ukraine.”

Russia could also escalate various grey zone activities, like signal jamming and maritime harassment. Russia has already been doing this around the Baltic states, but might try to upscale various nuisance activities, as it did over the weekend in Irish waters. Another scare tactic could be nuclear threats, but Dan cautions: “I don’t think we should take the idea that Russia might use a nuclear weapon, especially in a country where they’re winning, very seriously however.”

Ukraine remains trapped in an agonising strategic predicament, perpetually seeking western assistance to win the war but receiving just enough support “to lose slowly”, Dan says. That situation is poised to deteriorate further as Zelenskyy’s key Washington ally prepares to exit the Oval Office, to be replaced by a leader viewed by many as more sympathetic to Putin and his interests.

What else we’ve been reading

• Anna Isaac’s reporting into Thames Water’s failing IT is a stark read on the state of our privatised water system. “The software we use is older than me, and some of the hardware is older than my dad,” says one whistleblower. Charlie Lindlar, acting deputy editor, newsletters

• The new European parliament is the most rightwing in the history of the EU. Law professor Alberto Alemanno unpicks how Ursula von der Leyen’s incoming commission may look to far-right support to push through its policies. His verdict is fearsome. (For more of what’s to come, sign up to our free weekly email This Is Europe). Craille Maguire Gillies, newsletters team

• Will Hayward is always worth reading, but this week especially so, as he explains how Wales’s 20mph speed limit became a culture war battleground. Charlie

• It’s that time of year again, when novel takes on festive flavours begin to appear. Frankly, I would make Nigel Slater’s early batch of Christmas recipes (cranberry sausage cakes, say) all winter long. Craille

• I put being tired all the time down to having a toddler, but Moya Sarner investigates why there may be more to our collective chronic exhaustion than we think (and why she might have the answer). Charlie

Sport

Football | Andy Robertson’s stoppage-time winner earned Scotland a 2-1 victory over Poland that pushes them into Nations League relegation playoff. Northern Ireland saw a two-goal lead disappear in the space of three minutes but a 2-2 draw with Luxembourg was still enough for Michael O’Neill’s side to earn promotion as winners of Group C3.

Tennis | Rafael Nadal is at peace with his efforts as he prepares to end his legendary career at the Davis Cup finals in Málaga this week. “At the end, I achieved the most important thing for me, because this day arrived and I am in peace that I gave all that I had,” said Nadal.

Football | Rodrigo Bentancur has been banned for seven domestic matches by the Football Association for using a racial slur against his Tottenham teammate Son Heung-min.

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