Tuesday briefing: What we know so far about Israel’s overnight ‘ground operation’ in Lebanon

Good morning.

Overnight, Israel began what it called a “limited, localised and targeted” ground operation against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. After launching what is (according to the UNHCR) the most intense attack on the country since 2006, the question arises: how much bigger does this conflict need to get before it is officially designated a “full-blown” regional war?

Since last October, when Hamas killed around 1,200 civilians and took 250 more hostages, the international community has been using diplomatic pressure to prevent a larger regional conflict breaking out from the war in Gaza. For now, those efforts have seemingly failed – at least 95 people were killed on Monday alone in Israeli airstrikes across Lebanon.

Hezbollah’s deputy leader, Naim Qassem, said on Monday night that “resistance forces are ready for a ground engagement”. “We know that the battle may be long. We will win as we won in the liberation of 2006,” he said, referring to the 2006 war. US president Joe Biden and the UK’s foreign secretary, David Lammy, have called for a political solution to the ongoing crisis.

For today’s newsletter, I spoke with the Guardian’s international security correspondent, Jason Burke, about the latest developments in the region.

Five big stories

1. Conservatives | Leadership hopeful Robert Jenrick is facing condemnation for claiming that UK special forces are “killing rather than capturing” terrorists because of fears that European laws would free any detained assailants. His claim has drawn criticism from Labour, a former Tory attorney general and a former army officer.

2. Aviation | The US National Transportation Safety Board on Monday said more than 40 foreign operators of Boeing 737 airplanes may be using planes with rudder components that may pose safety risks.

3. Police | Four police officers and a civilian employee are to face disciplinary action for alleged errors that helped leave the serial rapist David Carrick free to attack a string of women.

4. South Korea | Three police officers prison have been convicted over their handling of a 2022 Halloween crush in a Seoul nightlife district that killed 159 people. The crush, one of the biggest peacetime disasters in South Korea, caused a nationwide outpouring of grief. The victims, who were mostly in their 20s and 30s, had gathered in Itaewon for Halloween celebrations.

5. Culture | A painting that was found by a junk dealer while he was clearing out the cellar of a home in Capri, and was regularly decried by his wife as “horrible”, is an original portrait by Pablo Picasso, Italian experts have claimed.

In depth: ‘Lebanon is fragile – it is not in a state to sustain another round of violence’

More than 1,000 people in Lebanon have been killed in the past two weeks, 6,000 wounded and, according to the Lebanese government, one million displaced.

Meanwhile in Gaza, the humanitarian situation has eroded further. With little to no infrastructure available to support the displaced population, disease is rampant and civilians are living in the most catastrophic conditions. The principals of the UN-NGO inter-agency standing committee (IASC) have said they are still unable to carry out anywhere near enough humanitarian work in the territory, as Palestinians continue to live “without protection, food, water, sanitation, shelter, health care, education, electricity and fuel – the basic necessities to survive”.

There is little political incentive for Benjamin Netanyahu to let up, as the assassination of the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has given the embattled Israeli prime minister a political boost. The mood among many of Israel’s citizens is one of jubilation: there have been singalongs and celebratory toasts as the government’s standing recovers from months of protests and low morale.

Destabilising Hezbollah

At this point, there is too much uncertainty to predict the long term impact of the assassination of Nasrallah on Hezbollah but in the short term “it’s a really devastating blow”, Jason says. “Not only have they lost a charismatic and popular leader – among his supporters at least – [but] Nasrallah was also competent and effective. You don’t get to stay at the top of a group like that for 32 years without being good at what you do.”

It is not just the loss of its leader that has hit Hezbollah hard. Israel has intercepted and sabotaged its communication and eliminated many of the militia group’s most senior military commanders – so far 19 Hezbollah officials have been killed. The assassinations and targeted bombing show just how deeply penetrated Hezbollah, a notoriously secretive group, has become by Israeli intelligence.

As expected, the Shia militia group has sworn to enact revenge attacks but, as of yet, it appears to have been unable to retaliate in any serious way. “Even though Israeli air defences are very effective, it’s been said for a long time that Hezbollah, which has massive stocks of rockets and missiles, would be able to overwhelm those defences and cause significant casualties and destruction in much of northern and central Israel but so far, they’ve not been able to do anything much,” Jason says.

This hesitation perhaps is borne of an awareness that Israel’s response to such an attack is likely to be equally if not more devastating. “Hezbollah is a state within a state and primarily acts in its own interests, or those of its sponsor, Iran. But whatever happens the consequences for Lebanon are going to be very tough indeed. The country is already fragile and it is really not in a state to sustain another round of deeply destabilising violence and destruction,” Jason says. In just a week, more than 1,000 civilians have been killed – almost the number killed in 36 days of war 18 years ago.

Ground invasion

Israel had been threatening boots on the ground in south Lebanon for several weeks, and this came to pass on Monday night. The IDF has said it will be targeting a number of villages near the border “which pose an immediate and real threat to Israeli settlements on the northern border”. It has also declared areas of Metula, Misgav Am and Kfar Giladi in northern Israel a closed military zone.

A ground invasion, as risky and costly as it is, theoretically can do more damage to Hezbollah. Tanks and infantry may allow Israel to “destroy tunnels, military positions and physically push back Hezbollah fighters who are still on the contested border”, he adds. They could create a buffer zone on the other side of the border to allow the 65,000 displaced Israeli’s to return to their communities in northern Israel, one of Netanyahu’s stated objectives.

But although Hezbollah has been weakened, the incursion into south Lebanon may not prove simple for Israel’s military. The militia group still has a large arsenal including sophisticated anti-tank weapons and, crucially, tens of thousands of troops. A buffer zone could mean that Israel would have to keep troops there indefinitely, leaving them vulnerable against Hezbollah fighters who know the region like the back of their hand.

Iran’s strategy

Iran is currently in a weak strategic position. For months, Tehran has been trying to respond strongly to Israel’s aggression without pushing the conflict over the brink and becoming directly involved in a conflict that would inevitably rope in the US.

“Iran has a variety of ways it could respond, none of which is particularly effective, but that would at least display a willingness to retaliate,” Jason says. Historically, Tehran has used proxies to attack Israeli embassies, diplomats and other Israeli targets around the world. The most recent retaliatory act saw Iran launch 300 projectiles at Israel, though most were intercepted. “They know they can’t risk an all out war with Israel, so these moves did not act as a deterrent. Instead it likely emboldened Israel,” Jason says.

The ongoing war in Gaza

Hezbollah has made it clear that the only way it will willingly end the current round of attacks on Israel is a ceasefire in Gaza – but that still looks a long way off. The months-long peace deal and hostage release negotiations brokered by the US and Qatar have been stuck in limbo as neither Netanyahu nor the Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar, seems interested in coming to an agreement. US diplomatic efforts have done little else than show how ineffectual Washington is at even moderating Israel’s military actions.

While all eyes seem focused on the border between Israel and Lebanon, the IDF has continued to launch deadly airstrikes on designated safe zones across the Gaza Strip. Earlier this month at least 19 people were killed as Israeli missiles hit an overcrowded humanitarian zone in Khan Younis. Eleven schools being used as shelters were hit in Israeli strikes last month, with nearly 100 deaths reported. Israel has blamed Hamas for using civilian as human shields – although recent reports have found that Israeli forces are using Palestinian civilians as human shields in Gaza to enter and clear tunnels and buildings they suspect may have been booby-trapped. The practice was so widespread it was considered “protocol”.

The most recent figures show that at least 41,534 Palestinians have been killed since the war began and 96,092 have been injured. As the winter months approach, displaced Palestinians are living in battered tents surrounded by decaying rubbish face floods and cold weather, increasing the already high risk of disease.

Beyond reaching its goals, of returning its displaced citizens to the north and destroying Hezbollah, the only other real way of stopping Israel from further expanding its scope is “if the US leans on them so heavily that Netanyahu felt there was no alternative but to hold back”, Jason says. But as Netanyahu’s polls rebound and the US remains focused on its own upcoming election, there seems to be no obvious mechanism to de-escalate the situation.

What else we’ve been reading

• Anna Moore’s piece on abusive parents granted contact with their children is an important read but a difficult one, too, not least her interview with Claire Throssell, whose two young sons were murdered by their father (says Throssell, “I don’t live now, I exist”). Hannah J Davies, deputy editor, newsletters

• The far right’s victory in Austria was expected and, crucially, not sweeping but it is still a frightening reminder of the foothold that extremist populist politics is gaining in many countries. Jon Henley’s analysis offers a helpful insight into what this election win means for Europe. Nimo

• Housing campaigner and Guardian columnist Kwajo Tweneboa has written about the final Grenfell report, and how the problem of dangerous housing is depressingly persistent. Hannah

• Nadia Khomami’s interview with the internet’s favourite (and fastest) comedian Munya Chawawa covers everything from his new Channel 4 documentary, How to Survive a Dictator: North Korea, to his childhood in Zimbabwe and, fittingly, anxiety about the apocalypse. Nimo

• I love the sound of Yotam Ottolenghi’s curries with crunch. (For more from the great man and all of the other talented Guardian cooks, you can also check out the Feast app for iOS and Android). Hannah

Sport

Football | Bournemouth beat Southampton 3-1 via goals from Evanilson, Dango Ouattara and Antoine Semenyo, despite the brief threat of a second-half comeback.

Cricket | Marcus Trescothick hopes England emerge from a sardine tin start to the winter “unscathed” as he and seven players bounce straight from a cold, damp one-day series defeat to Australia straight into the 40C heat of Pakistan.

Football | West Bromwich Albion have written to the EFL asking that it investigate events surrounding the death of a supporter during the Championship fixture at Sheffield Wednesday on Saturday.

The front pages