Wednesday, November 6, 2024

Trump showing early signs of winning election

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Donald Trump is showing early signs of winning the presidential election, analysis of voting data suggests.

Trump has seen his vote share increase in 1,550 of the 1,698 counties which have counted the vast majority of their ballots.

Similarly, Trump is now leading in 9 of the 15 bellwether counties which have declared over three-quarters of their vote.

These counties have voted for the winning candidate in every election since 2008.

As of 11.30pm ET (4.30am GMT), some 1,700 of 3,100 counties have declared over 90 per cent of their vote.

The counties tend to be rural with smaller populations and the swings aren’t massive – on average just a two-point bump.

However, in swing states where the 2020 election was won with just thousands of votes, it could be enough to win if repeated nationally.

In Pinellas, Florida, where 100 per cent of the vote has been counted, Trump has secured 52 per cent of the vote, a three-point jump on 2020.

This bellwether has correctly called the election in every election since 2004.

In total, there are 25 bellwethers across the states.

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