Topline
Former President Donald Trump criticized a new Fox News poll that shows President Joe Biden beating him in a hypothetical matchup for the first time since October—the latest poll to show Trump’s lead has slipped in the wake of his Manhattan hush money conviction last month.
Former President Donald Trump gives the keynote address at Turning Point Action’s “The People’s … [+]
Key Facts
The poll found Biden leads Trump by one point (margin of error: 3 points) in a two-way race, a three-point swing since the network’s May survey and Biden’s best showing in polls conducted by Fox since October.
Calling the Fox poll “trash” in a post on Truth Social, Trump claimed Fox News polled more Biden 2020 voters than Trump 2020 voters—even though respondents were equally split among Republicans and Democrats, with 43% identifying as solidly (33%) or leaning (10%) Democratic, 42% identifying as solidly (33%) or leaning (9%) Republican and 14% identifying as independents/other.
Trump also disputed the survey results that show more voters ranked “the future of American democracy” as “extremely important” than any of the 10 other issues, and claimed inflation and immigration were more important to voters (the poll didn’t specifically ask about inflation, but found the economy ranked third and immigration ranked fifth in terms of “extremely important” issues).
The margin of error for Trump 2020 voters and Biden 2020 voters on question of who they would vote for this year is also the same, at 4.5 points, while slightly more Biden 2020 voters (4%) said they would vote for Trump this year than Trump 2020 voters who said they would vote for Biden (3%), and new voters who haven’t participated in the four most recent general elections favor Trump by four points in a head-to-head matchup.
Democratic pollster Beacon Research and Republican pollster Shaw & Company Research, which have partnered to administer polling for the network since 2011, randomly selected 1,095 registered voters from a nationwide voter file to administer the survey by phone or text message.
The poll also found Biden leads by nine points among independents—a significant swing since May, when they preferred Trump by two points—and by 11 points among “double-haters,” who dislike both candidates, while more voters at any point in Biden’s presidency (32%) say the economy is in excellent or good shape.
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Crucial Quote
“Fox News polls have never treated me, or MAGA fairly!” Trump wrote. “Fox News should get rid of Paul Ryan, and get a new Pollster, but they won’t,” Trump said, referring to former Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wisc., who sits on Fox Corporation’s board of directors.
Contra
While a string of national polls have showed Trump’s lead slipping in the wake of his felony conviction in Manhattan last month, he consistently beats Biden in surveys of the seven swing states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia). An Ispos poll out Thursday found Trump leads by two points in a head-to-head matchup in the seven states. A plurality of voters in all three regions (Midwest, Southeast and Southwest) said inflation and increasing costs is the most important issue facing the country, followed by immigration.
Key Background
Biden beats or is tied with Trump in the most five recent surveys in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average that shows Trump leading by just 0.1 point nationally. After trailing Trump for more than a month in Morning Consult’s weekly poll, Biden has led Trump for two weeks in a row. While many surveys show the majority of voters say Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records won’t impact their voting decision, polls also consistently find that independents are less likely to support Trump after the guilty verdict—a small, but potentially significant, subset of voters in a race that remains marginally close.
Further Reading
Biden Vs. Trump 2024 Election Polls: Trump’s Post-Conviction Losing Streak Continues (Forbes)
Trump-Biden 2024 Polls: Here’s Who’s Winning In The 6 States That Will Decide The Election (Forbes)