Joe Biden is the best-positioned Democrat to defeat Donald Trump in the upcoming election, according to renowned pollster Allan Lichtman, in what is a very surprising verdict considering the US President’s recent woes.
Known for his remarkably accurate White House prediction system, Lichtman weighed in on Biden’s re-election campaign amid growing calls for the 46th President to step aside – with Barrack Obama the latest high-ranking Democrat to reportedly discuss concerns about his future.
Biden, who recently contracted coronavirus, has been facing increasing scrutiny regarding his age and competency. Despite these concerns, he remains resolute in his decision to run for a second term.
When asked if there was any scenario in which he would exit the race, Biden stated: “If I had some medical condition that emerged, if doctors came to me and said, you got this problem and that problem.”
Lichtman, who has accurately predicted all but one presidential election since 1984, advised the Democratic Party against removing Biden from the race.
“If Democrats hope to retain the White House in November, they need to support Joe Biden,” he said.
Lichtman’s prediction model, which he calls the “Keys to the White House”, assesses various factors including politics, performance, and candidate personality.
According to his system, a party will lose if it fails on six or more of these “keys.”
The pollster argued that Biden still has an edge over Trump, despite recent opinion polls indicating a shift in favor of the former president.
He highlighted Biden’s resilience and the importance of stability in the face of global challenges, including the war in Ukraine, an assertive China, and the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
Lichtman has not yet made his final prediction for 2024, with Americans having 110 days before the polls open. However, he has voiced his support for Biden, stating: “A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.”
Despite facing multiple legal challenges, Trump has recently gained a two-point lead over Biden in FiveThirtyEight’s poll-of-polls. This is a significant change from the 2020 election cycle, where Biden held a nine-point lead at this stage.
In response to the speculation and pressure to step down, Biden has reiterated his commitment to the race, saying: “I wouldn’t be running again if I did not absolutely believe I was the best person to beat Donald Trump in 2024.”