Locks
No locks today.
Degenerates
NBA Summer League OKC Thunder/Miami Heat Over 181.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on ESPNU
The significant trend so far in Summer League action has been totals in the mid to high 180’s that have coasted to the under. That has caused a game like this to see its total lined significantly lower than I think it would otherwise have been, and I see value as a result. Both the Thunder and the Heat have had extra time to play as a team, as they played in the Utah and California tune-up events, respectively.
That creates more continuity on offense than teams who are just playing together for the first time, as evidenced by Miami dropping 119 points on Saturday night. Historically, these second games in Vegas are where scoring tends to pick up, and two rosters with quality scorers should turn this into a high-scoring affair.
MLB Home Run Derby Winner (Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN
Gunnar Henderson (+550)
Bobby Witt Jr (+600)
These two young shortstops have the power, swings, exit velocities, and launch angles to take this derby by storm, possibly meeting in the finals. The derby is typically a young man’s game, so they immediately have the advantage over several older players in the field. And it would also be a great narrative for MLB to see budding young stars from small market teams get publicity like this.
Henderson enters this contest with arguably the best hard contact rate (99th percentile) and bat speed (96th percentile) of anyone in the field, plus batting lefthanded creates an advantage in Globe Life Park. And for Witt, his exit velocity and launch angle are perfectly suited to this derby, and he has the longest home run of anyone in the field this season. The favorites and longshots in the field don’t interest me for several reasons, so I’ll toss some pizza money on these two at solid odds.
Tiny Nick is 2378-2193 ATS (+87.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.