Locks
MLB (0.6 Unit) Hayden Birdsong Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-120; Odds via DraftKings): 6:15 PM CT on FOX
This mini-slump that the Twins bats are in is pretty frustrating after watching them put up league-leading numbers for a month. But that’s baseball, and if they’re going to pull themselves out of it, a good time would be today against a rookie pitcher. Yes, Birdsong is a righty which isn’t the best split for Minnesota, but this total is just laughably low and a number that I’m always targeting if there’s a competent offense involved.
Birdsong has allowed more than this in two of his three starts since getting called up, and none of those saw him go more than five innings so opponents are hitting him efficiently. This recent stretch for the Twins hasn’t looked good on the scoreboard but they are getting hits on the opposing starters, just not producing runs from them, so I see that continuing against this vulnerable rookie.
MLB (0.5 Unit) NY Yankees/Baltimore Orioles First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:05 PM CT on FS1
Everyone knows how good these two offenses can be, so the total is somewhat inflated. But two excellent starting pitchers should keep those offenses quiet early on today. Luis Gil for the Yankees has had some struggles lately, but he was back to being shockingly untouchable for most of his last start against a good Boston lineup. Going against an Orioles team that has fallen into an incredible hitting slump should keep him rolling.
And as good as the Yankees offense can be, they should have a tough time against Grayson Rodriguez today. The Baltimore righty has been outstanding at home this season with a 2.27 ERA and .209 opponent on-base average, plus he has great numbers against the Yankees in limited action. There’s a breeze blowing in at Camden Yards today, so expect a slow start to this high-profile game.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Texas Rangers/Houston Astros Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:10 PM CT on Bally Sports SW
These teams got to 9 runs last night with far less vulnerable starters going, continuing a high-scoring season series that shouldn’t slow down here. That season series has gone 7-1 over today’s total with 11.6 runs on average, and I see two starters today who could cause this one to fly over early. I don’t trust Spencer Arrighetti for Houston one bit, as he has a 5.01 ERA at home and faces a Rangers team that’s gotten much more consistent at the plate recently.
But the big key is Nathan Eovaldi, a usually very reliable starter that finds himself in a bad spot today. His ERA from home to the road more than doubles to 5.40 with an inflated WHIP as well. He’s had two blowup starts on the road this season and one came in Houston, which makes sense considering his career numbers against the Astros of a .336 ERA and 1.065 OPS. So the history of this series combined with the pitching issues today has me looking over on a very standard total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2375-2189 ATS (+88.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.