Locks
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Phoenix Mercury @ Minnesota Lynx -5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBA TV
I’m sticking to my principles here that I’ll back the Lynx at single-digit spreads in home games. The Lynx are in for a tough test in this one against a surging Mercury squad, but it’s also a revenge spot for Minnesota after their last loss came in Phoenix on a buzzer-beater. They’ve handled their business since that game against a pretty tough schedule, and today face a defense I think they can exploit.
The Mercury are allowing the most three’s per game, and the Lynx have fallen more and more in love with the three-ball as they’ve become the league’s highest percentage team from deep. The defense will need to continue to excel, and as the best three-point percentage defensive team they should slow down a Phoenix squad that’s also in love with the three-ball. I think the Lynx have been looking ahead to this game with revenge on their minds, so expect their best effort and another cover from the league’s best ATS team.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Washington Mystics Team Total Over 79.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on MNMT
The Mystics being just a two-win team this season creates numbers like this that are advantageous. Their season-long average of just 76.3 PPG, second-lowest in the league, does not tell the story of how they’ve been playing lately, or account for who they’re up against today. Washington’s style of taking a lot of three’s has finally started paying off the past 5 games where they’re averaging 84.4 PPG and are 5-0 over this total. Dallas meanwhile can’t stop anything, allowing the second-most PPG in the league and seeing their past 8 opponents go over this total. The Wings are shorthanded and not giving much effort as their season has collapsed, so look for the Mystics to take advantage this afternoon.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) LA Sparks/NY Liberty Over 167.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN
This is a rematch of Thursday night’s game that got to 173 points. It reached that level despite both LA and New York getting off to slow starts from the field, and not many free throws being shot in the game. I think both of those things turn around today because of how good a shooting team the Liberty are, plus the Sparks are one of the league’s leaders in getting to the free throw line. I’m also considering that this is a national TV game on ESPN where the Liberty might want to make a statement against a weaker opponent, which could create a style that carries this game over the total.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Twins Team Total Over 4.5 (-105; Odds via Caesars): 3:07 PM CT on Bally Sports North
This offense is too locked in right now to not back the Twins in some fashion today. The current three-game losing streak aside, the Twins have gone over this total in 10 of their past 12 games as the offense has gotten locked in. And now they get to face a lefty starter who they just saw on Sunday and tagged for 4 runs.
JP Sears has been better at home, but Twins are hitting lefties 35 points higher than righties and most of this recent stretch has come against right handers. The Twins figured out how to get the ball to jump in chilly, cavernous Oakland Coliseum last night with a couple homers and other hard-hit balls. So with the conditions much better for this day game, look for them to get over this number again.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia Phillies Team Total Over 5.5 (+115; Odds via Caesars): 3:05 PM CT on NBCS-PH
This is a big number, but one the Phillies have a unique ability to reach since they’ll face Tommy Henry, a lefty, in a bounceback spot today. Philadelphia has the best record in the league off a loss so their offense is likely to step up, and they’re also one of the best offenses against lefties.
The Phillies have the second-most runs per game against lefthanded pitching, plus high wRC+, wOBA, and OPS numbers. They’re also averaging 5.3 runs per game at home this season, and there is a big breeze blowing out to center today with temps near 100 degrees. With the situation and conditions right for scoring, I’ll take a shot at this plus-money return that the Phillies put up a big number today.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2342-2160 ATS (+89.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.