Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Corbin Burnes Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+145; Odds via DraftKings): 5:50 PM CT on FS1
I think the number here of 18.5 is pretty fair and a little high if anything, but given the tilted juice and situation, I’m seeing plenty of value to the over. In his past 8 starts, Burnes has pitched a minimum of 6 innings or 18 outs, so that really feels like the baseline to judge him by. But in 3 of those he’s gone over this number, including 7 innings in his past 2 starts.
Those are telltale signs of how locked in Burnes is right now, posting a 1.41 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in the past 5 outings. He’s also been better on the road this season, with a 0.97 WHIP and .186 opponent on-base average. And the last factor is how bad this Rays offense has been recently and the fact that they’re much worse against righties like Burnes. In a national TV game, look for Burnes to stay in longer so he can pad stats and boost his standing in the AL Cy Young race.
MLB (0.5 Unit) NY Yankees @ KC Royals First 5 Innings Moneyline (+100; Odds via DraftKings): 7:10 PM CT on YES
The Yankees are automatically going to get respect from the betting market in this situation because they’re the Yankees, and because nobody has enough respect for the Royals yet. But this is a great spot to give some respect to KC and their surprising Cy Young candidate Seth Lugo, who has decent numbers in his career against the Yankees lineup.
I’m also looking to fade Carlos Rodon here who is due for significant regression, and this sneaky-good Royals lineup can certainly deliver it. This is about as close as you get to a let-down spot in baseball too, with the Yankees just playing in New York on Sunday Night Baseball and having to travel, which is typically a difficult situational spot for teams. Going against this Yankee juggernaut can be scary, but the Royals should be earning everyone’s trust and I like the matchup here.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Salvador Perez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115; Odds via DraftKings)
Salvador Perez is the Royals player with the most at-bats against Rodon by far, and he’s fared extremely well. Salvy has a .450 average and 1.276 OPS with a couple home runs, and hits lefties like Rodon better to begin with. Perez has been having a terrible June, so a pitcher who’s due for regression that he has good numbers against might be just what he needs to see.
Degenerates
WNBA Indiana Fever Team Total Under 73.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBA TV
Connecticut finally had their perfect record broken over the weekend, so my guess is they’re looking to take it out on someone. And for the Sun, that has usually meant locking down defensively, as they lead the WNBA in points allowed. Before the Liberty put 82 on them over the weekend, Connecticut had been on a 4-game stretch of allowing an insanely low 57.0 PPG, so they’re more than capable of shutting down opposing offenses. The last time they hosted Indiana the Fever fell just short of this number, and if the Sun are motivated enough they’ll do it again tonight.
Tiny Nick is 2322-2136 ATS (+88.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.