Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Dallas Mavericks +7 @ Boston Celtics (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on ABC
I don’t think this series is decided yet, not by any stretch of the imagination. Don’t let the score from Game 1 fool you, as that was a 1-point game after a first quarter where Boston simply didn’t miss. And if I’ve learned anything about this Celtics team it’s that they’re the personification of a let-down spot. They won handily in their Game 1’s against Miami and Cleveland only to get run off their own floor in Game 2 both rounds.
And for Dallas, they’ve been right in this spot before. The Mavericks were crushed in their first game against the Clippers and against the Thunder, plus they should’ve lost Game 1 to the Wolves (RIP). But they’re 3-0 in Game 2’s this postseason, winning all three on the road as significant underdogs. Dallas will need to make adjustments, but Boston’s air of superiority has gotten them into trouble a lot in playoff games, so I’ll take the 7 points expecting a tighter game tonight.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Seattle Storm @ Minnesota Lynx -1.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
This should be a good bounce back spot for the Lynx, who had their winning streak snapped by a buzzer-beating three. They’ll have to take this Storm team seriously, as Seattle is red hot and just took down the Aces on the road. The Storm will also be out for revenge here after the Lynx gave them two straight losses to begin the season.
The Lynx earned those wins through their excellent defense though, and know how to contain Seattle’s collection of star players. With home court and redemption on their minds, I like the Lynx tonight at a price we haven’t seen for them in weeks.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Seattle Storm Team Total Under 79.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)
The Storm tend to have some wild variance on offense, dropping triple digits in two of their past five games, but averaging 76.8 PPG on the season outside of those games. And it should be noted that those 100-pieces came against the two worst teams in the league, not this Lynx defense. Against Minnesota they’ve put up 70 and 77 in regulation, with a double-OT game further skewing their numbers. I expect this Lynx defense to be fired up and dictate the game, holding Seattle under this number once again.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Washington Mystics @ NY Liberty -4.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via ESPNBet): 2:00 PM CT on MNMT
The Liberty just had a massive win against Connecticut yesterday, so the potential for a letdown definitely exists today. But they’ve been so good in first quarters this season that I can’t skip an opportunity against the worst team in the league. The winless and hapless Mystics have a minus-2.9 average first quarter margin, but they’re up against the best first quarter team in the league.
In their last trip to New York, the Mystics found themselves down 15 after one quarter and that’s a distinct possibility again today. The Liberty are just too good in first quarters, even leading an excellent Sun team by 10 yesterday, so look for another fast start today.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Washington Mystics +7.5 First Half (-110; Odds via ESPNBet)
As much as the Liberty love crushing first quarters, they seem to equally love squandering those leads in the second quarter. The Liberty have a minus-2.5 average margin in second quarters which has created an average first half margin of just plus-5.7 points. Remove the three times they’ve blown out the Fever and that margin shrinks drastically to plus-1.1 points. In their two meetings with Washington the Liberty have led by 4 and trailed by 3, so this is too many points for a team that can’t protect their fast starts.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Chicago Cubs/Cincinnati Reds Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:40 PM CT on Marquee
I think the book might be out on Shota Imanaga, with consecutive rough outings and even the putrid White Sox tagging him for 5 runs last week. Imanaga never had electric stuff anyway, so a powerful lineup like the Reds, that’s better against lefties, could put another big number on the rookie.
The Reds are heating up the past 3 series with 6.6 runs per game, so this might be a bad time for Imanaga to visit a hitter’s park. But I think the Cubs can get theirs here too against Frankie Montas who’s been inconsistent, especially with a solid wind blowing out of this small ballpark, and that should get today’s game over the total.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Cleveland Guardians/Miami Marlins Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:40 PM CT on Bally Sports OH
These are two pitchers that I think are awful, and they should be tossing enough meat balls to get this over a low total today. I especially despise Carlos Carrasco (it’s a long story) and his 5.76 ERA on the road this season should come into play today, particularly since Miami is so much better against righthanded pitching.
And the Guardians crush lefties, scoring the second-most runs in baseball for that split. So Trevor Rogers who owns a 5.88 ERA and .308 opponent on-base average at home, in a pitcher’s park, should get crushed again. The Cleveland bats woke up yesterday and should do most of the damage here, but these starters are gas cans that should fuel plenty of scoring today.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2318-2134 ATS (+88.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.