Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics/Indiana Pacers First Half Over 114 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN
I really hope tonight isn’t the end of this series because early points have been a very solid trend. I expect that to continue tonight with these two historic offenses going at it again, possibly with Tyrese Haliburton able to return as well. The games so far in this series have tended to slow down a little bit later on, and the desperation of a closeout spot might cause that again tonight, but the first halves are averaging 120.7 points so that’s what I’m focused on. It’s the two best offenses in NBA history and they’ve been playing up-tempo, so there’s no reason to overthink this.
Bonus Bet (Degenerate Only): Indiana Pacers Moneyline (+235; Odds via Caesars)
Both conference finals series are 3-0 right now. The NBA Finals don’t start until June 6th. I did a little research and found that June 6th is a long time from now, so the league is two results from having a serious lull in attention. Maybe I’m just overly conspiratorial because the refs are screwing the Wolves, but my tinfoil hat is telling me this series gets extended.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 @ Chicago White Sox (-115; Odds via Caesars): 1:10 PM CT on NBCS-CHI
We just saw this pitching matchup last week, and the result was predictable in a 9-2 Toronto rout. Nick Nastrini is just not major-league ready at this point, but the White Sox are trotting him out there anyway from a lack of options. The Chicago righty has been hit hard in his three starts, with the White Sox losing each game by multiple runs.
That’s been common for the Southsiders in general, as 31 of their 39 losses this season have come by multiple runs. I don’t love Chris Bassitt for the Blue Jays, but he dominated the White Sox last week and this is much more about Nastrini and a brutal Chicago team than anything else. Toronto needs a bounce back from a bad series in Detroit, so look for them to get on track here.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Philadelphia Phillies/SF Giants Over 8 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 4:05 PM CT on NBCS-PH
It’s Blake Snell day again, and it’s impossible not to expect him to be a gas can every time he takes the mound. It obviously wasn’t injury as a rehab stint didn’t fix his issues, and now he faces one of the most potent offenses in the league. The Phillies are better against lefties like Snell, and should be primed to bounce back off a disappointing weekend in Colorado. They have their own iffy starter going with Taijuan Walker, who was already hit pretty hard by the Giants earlier this season. An afternoon game negates some of the cool weather impact that holds down scoring in Oracle Park, so I like this one to get over the total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2298-2117 ATS (+86.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.