Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) OKC Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks -3.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on ABC
It took a while, but Dallas has finally shown that they’re the stronger, more experienced team in this series, and they should close it out tonight. The Mavericks and their duo of big-game hunters, along with an elite defense, should take advantage of this opportunity at home the way they did last round.
I just don’t see OKC fixing the issues that have plagued them in this series, mainly solving the Dallas defense. The Mavs have closed off the driving lanes and forced outside shots, something the Thunder weren’t equipped for as they’ve shot just 32.7% from deep. if Dallas can keep up the defensive effort, then Luka and Kyrie should have closeout performances to put this series to bed.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Luka Doncic Over 28.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel)
Doncic fell short of his points prop in the first four games of this series, causing it to drop pretty significantly. He finally had the kind of game we’re used to seeing on Wednesday though, and with this number still deflated I think it’s a good opportunity to jump on the over.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Chicago Sky/Dallas Wings Over 167.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:00 PM CT on NBATV
Across town from the Mavericks game should be a shootout between two teams that love to get up and down the floor. The Sky and the Wings have gotten into some serious track meets recently, averaging 180.6 PPG the past 5 meetings going back to last season.
Wednesday’s season opener between them got to 166 points, but there was room for improvement. Neither team shot it well from the field overall or from deep, with Chicago even struggling at the free throw line. These teams love to play with pace, and any shooting improvement will provide the boost needed to get over this higher number.
Degenerates
MLB Detroit Tigers/Arizona Diamondbacks First 5 Innings Under 4 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports Detroit
Neither of these teams inspires much confidence at the plate these days, and with two elite starters going I think this game starts slowly. Jack Flaherty has been excellent for the Tigers, with a 1.05 WHIP and an expected ERA of 2.98. His best pitch is a fastball which the Arizona lineup has really struggled against this season.
Meanwhile, Zac Gallen’s home dominance continues. The Diamondbacks ace has posted a 0.53 ERA and .172 opponent on-base average at Chase Field. I don’t think the light-hitting Tigers will do anything to change that, especially facing regression off last night’s 13-run outburst. Look for both offenses to struggle early and often to keep this to a low-scoring start.
Tiny Nick is 2284-2103 ATS (+85.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.