‘There’s no such thing as 100% protection, solution lies in offense’

The recent Houthi attacks serve as a stark reminder that the war is far from over and highlight the challenges Israel has faced in intercepting thousands of projectiles launched since the October 7 Hamas massacre. These include ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones launched from Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran and Yemen.

While Iran has shown restraint in the wake of severe setbacks and concerns over Donald Trump’s return to the White House, fighting with Hezbollah has ceased under a truce, and Hamas’ military capabilities have been decimated.

The Houthis, however, persist in what they call a “campaign of support” for Gaza. Even recent Israeli airstrikes in Yemen have not deterred further missile launches.

Brig. Gen. (res.) Zvika Haimovich, a former commander of the Israeli Air Force’s Air Defense Array, confirmed that unlike the incident in Ramat Efal, this time the interception attempt unequivocally failed.

“In this case, the clichés proved true—there’s no such thing as 100% protection or a foolproof guarantee,” Haimovich told Ynet. “No matter how many weapons systems are involved—Arrow, David’s Sling or Iron Dome—success isn’t certain. You use every available tool for the specific threat, but you cannot ensure an interception in every scenario.”

Despite the two interception failures, Haimovich emphasizes that the overall interception rate remains high and cautions against drawing premature conclusions. “Two separate incidents happened close together in terms of time and the threat from Yemen. I wouldn’t link them or jump to far-reaching conclusions. We’re talking about dozens, even hundreds of launches—and over a broader time frame, the results align with statistical expectations,” he said.

According to the IDF, the Houthis have launched more than 200 missiles and 170 drones toward Israel since the war began on October 7 last year. Most were intercepted or failed to reach Israeli territory.

Saturday afternoon, another drone that entered the Gaza periphery—likely launched from Yemen—was intercepted. A dramatic video showed an attack helicopter engaging the drone, which exploded mid-air. Earlier this week, a Houthi drone was intercepted off Tel Aviv’s coast, and both a missile and a drone from Yemen were shot down on Monday.

“We’ve been at war for 15 months, and it’s not going to end tonight,” Haimovich added. “The systems have performed excellently so far and will continue to do so. This is a competition, a process of mutual learning between us and our adversaries—Iran, the Houthis and various militias. Each side is trying to stay one step ahead of the other.

“While the threat has evolved, so have our capabilities. Since the beginning of the war, our Iron Dome, Arrow and David’s Sling systems have shown significant improvement, thanks to this ongoing learning process. It’s a journey with a beginning, a middle and no end in sight yet.”

Brig. Gen. (res.) Doron Gavish, also a former Air Defense Array commander, explained the process behind the system’s operations: “The air defense array functions in stages. First, the target is detected. Then, its type is identified, followed by the interception process. The initial stages worked as intended, which is why an alert was issued. However, the interception phase failed, likely due to a technical malfunction that caused the miss.”

Gavish dismissed the possibility that a new type of missile had been used in the attack. “What we encountered is the same missile from the same family that has been launched at Israel previously,” he said. “Hundreds of missiles have been fired at Israel, and in the overwhelming majority of cases, the systems’ performance—especially the Arrow system—has been effective.”

He emphasized that the incident underscores repeated warnings from the IDF that the public must adhere to Home Front Command instructions, as air defense systems are not foolproof. “This is not a new threat,” he noted.

Gavish argued that the solution lies not just in defense but also in offense: “Defense is meant to mitigate the threat and save lives, but to truly address the enemy, offensive action is also necessary. We’ve seen the Air Force operating there, and in my view, if the Houthis continue launching missiles, this will not be the last strike.”

On Israel’s interception challenges, Ben-Yishai pointed to the future deployment of the Iron Beam laser defense system, which will enhance the country’s air defense capabilities.

Ben-Yishai outlined two potential reasons for the failed interception overnight. The first is that the missile was launched on a “flattened” ballistic trajectory or from an unexpected direction, meaning Israel’s or U.S. warning systems in Saudi Arabia failed to detect it in time, leaving interceptors unable to maneuver effectively.

The warhead of any ballistic missile is hypersonic. Once it re-enters the atmosphere, it uses small rocket engines or fins for navigation during its maneuvering phase. This maneuvering, conducted at speeds of Mach 5 (five times the speed of sound), poses a significant challenge for air defense systems. Ben-Yishai noted that this could explain why the warhead of Thursday morning’s missile struck a building in Ramat Efal.