Sunday, December 22, 2024

The wider significance of Mercedes’ back-to-back F1 wins

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Lewis Hamilton was pretty open about the emotional importance of his British Grand Prix triumph after 945 days without a Formula 1 victory.

And while the ghosts of Abu Dhabi 2021 may never truly be banished, at least the fear of never winning again following all the controversy of that evening has been laid to rest.

But there is also a statistical significance to what Mercedes did at the British Grand Prix because it is the first time since the exact same closing stage of 2021 that it has managed back-to-back wins.

In the current era of Red Bull dominance, it has been slim pickings for the Milton Keynes-based team’s opposition, with its rivals mostly only coming away with one-off wins, like Carlos Sainz in Singapore last year.

You have to go back to the 2022 British/Austrian GP to find the most recent non-Red Bull back-to-back wins when Sainz and Charles Leclerc delivered victories at Silverstone and the Red Bull Ring in what ultimately proved to be the final flashes of potential from that year’s Ferrari before the RB18 hit its stride.

For Mercedes, its only previous victory in this ground effect era before George Russell’s triumph in Austria a few weeks ago was the Briton’s success in Brazil 2022 – which ultimately proved to mark a false dawn for the squad in feeling it had finally made a breakthrough in understanding its car.

George Russell, Mercedes-AMG F1 Team, 1st position, celebrates on arrival in Parc Ferme

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

To find its most recent successive triumphs, the calendar has to be rolled back to the end of 2021 and Hamilton’s own last wins before Silverstone, when he rolled off consecutive victories in Brazil, Qatar and Saudi Arabia ahead of the infamous season showdown in Abu Dhabi.

But while the headline successes point to Mercedes getting back to its best in F1, there is also a bigger picture at play – and that is how the shift in the competitive form of the top four teams could well now shake up the constructors’ championship situation.

In fact, the teams’ battle is a particularly fascinating one because F1 is currently witnessing a situation where the two top teams are not delivering as much as those chasing then.

Red Bull’s constructors’ tally is being hurt by Sergio Perez’s repeated non-scores, while Ferrari has lost its way as the result of a terrible Canadian GP and issues with a floor upgrade it brought to the Spanish GP.

In contrast, McLaren has emerged as a consistent frontrunner since it brought an upgrade to the Miami Grand Prix, while Mercedes has hit its peak form after the potential of its new package was helped by a new front wing from Monaco and suspension revisions from Austria.

Since the Monaco Grand Prix (so the last four races which are Canada, Spain, Austria, and Britain), the scores have put Mercedes on top. It has scored 125 points, compared to McLaren’s 111, Red Bull’s 97 and Ferrari’s 50.

The shift is even more significant if you take just the last two races, where Mercedes appears to have made a step. In Austria/Silverstone, it scored 70 points, compared to McLaren’s 58, Red Bull’s 43 and Ferrari’s 32.

The gap between Mercedes and Red Bull is currently 152 points, but with 12 races to go – on current form – it’s not an insurmountable feat if it can keep up its current points scoring form.

But even if the Red Bull gap may perhaps be a step too far thanks to the Milton Keynes-based squad’s super strong start to the campaign as others floundered, it’s the fight for the best of the rest that could get very spicy.

In fact, tracking the gap between current second-placed Ferrari and Mercedes shows how much things have changed even though their positions in the standings have not.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W15

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W15

Photo by: Erik Junius

At its largest after the Monaco Grand Prix, Ferrari’s 252 points scored up until then had it 156 clear of Mercedes.

But since then, the Italian outfit has been outscored by its German manufacturer rival at each of the four races, and the gap between them has come down to 81 points.

Cutting into the deficit by 75 points over four races means an average of 18.75 points per grand prix – which means that on current form it will take just five more races for the gap to be wiped away completely.

After the British Grand Prix, Ferrari team boss Fred Vasseur said he was under no illusions just how much the picture could likely change with his squad’s previously comfortable P2 slot now at risk thanks to its upgrade struggles.

“I don’t know how many points we are behind Red Bull and how many points we are ahead of – I don’t know who is P3, it’s McLaren probably,” he smiled.

“It’s not the topic of today, the topic of today is to find performance, to come back in the situation of Monaco, or Imola, or whatever and to be able to fight for the pole position and the win.

“Then the [constructors’] championship, we have still 12 races to go, it’s almost a championship. It means we’ll have time to change everything 10 times…”

But it may not take 10 races for everything to change. Mercedes’ successes in Austria and Britain were not anticipated – indeed the Red Bull Ring owed much to luck thanks to Lando Norris and Max Verstappen colliding – as it had set sights on better results at venues to come.

In particular, it is heading to Hungary where it has been on pole position for the past two years – and its form should be boosted by an upgrade.

As team boss Toto Wolff said: “[In Austria] we weren’t far off. When you look at the gap that we had before the crash, it was maybe two tenths a lap, a bit more. And that is the closest we’ve been for a long time – on a track that we didn’t like so much in the past.

George Russell, Mercedes-AMG F1 Team, 1st position, Toto Wolff, Team Principal and CEO, Mercedes-AMG F1 Team, celebrate in Parc Ferme

George Russell, Mercedes-AMG F1 Team, 1st position, Toto Wolff, Team Principal and CEO, Mercedes-AMG F1 Team, celebrate in Parc Ferme

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

“So that kind of gave us hints that it could be getting much better. But honestly, we didn’t think it would be Silverstone – because there was barely anything, just small stuff that we put on the car.

“We were more expecting Budapest to Spa. But we have justified that what we do is right at the moment.”

The delivery of a victory hat trick this weekend, for the first time since 2021, would be confirmation that Mercedes is properly back, and that there is everything to play for in the championship still.

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