The creation of a new “multipolar” world – the stated objective of Putin and Xi – would truly begin with defeat for Ukraine. If Russia and China are able to prove themselves successful in war and economics, first by military victories in Ukraine and Taiwan, then by financial expansion into the Global South, this would gradually offer an alternative model for anxious Western democracies to follow.
Successful ideologies, like civilisations, ultimately have confidence in their values and want them to proliferate. Western democracy and capitalism once proved itself to be by far the most successful and adaptive at lifting people from poverty and preserving certain standards of freedom, regardless of nationality.
Unlike during the Cold War, when communist ideology was overtly transnational, China and Russia’s alternative models today, on the surface, are not. They are too tied to their respective national histories whenever their ideologies are extended beyond their borders. They have to rely on violence rather than persuasion – but that could change over time, especially if Putin and Xi destabilise the West through hybrid warfare rooted in disinformation and propaganda, exploiting how the internet divides, rather than unites, our societies.
Their narrative has already explained why so many conservatives appear secretly sympathetic to the ideals of Putin, thanks to his domestic war against liberal “decadence”. Despite the fact that Russia has a higher rate of abortions and drug and alcohol-related deaths than most Western countries.
If we lose our freedoms, in short, it will be because we were careless with them.
The war in Ukraine, therefore, is symbolic: a battleground for Western values, for its principles, and for the emerging economies trying to decide between autocracy and democracy. Defeat for Kyiv, a country which freely chose the latter, could spark a process of civilisational decline over decades.
At the end of the young radical’s speech in Les Misérables, he asks the room what greater thing is there than to belong to a prosperous nation steered by someone who can get things done. Only one voice speaks up: “To be free,” it says.
The values of the 21st century – earned by sacrifice – are now at war with the values of the 19th. If we want to preserve the former, along with our own prosperity and freedoms, we must not romanticise the latter, allowing its ‘might is right’ ideology to succeed.
It has been a bad few years for freedom. Victory for Putin could start a process of snuffing out liberty’s flame for good.
Francis Dearnley is Assistant Comment Editor at The Telegraph and one of the presenters of our daily podcast ‘Ukraine: The Latest’.
Other essays in the ‘What If Putin Wins?’ series: